#cpi高于预期，美股与btc再度承压
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.2%. August, September, and October have now each come in at 0.3%. Headline CPI rose 0.4%, versus expectations of 0.3%. Both beat expectations, with core CPI beating by more.
The yield curve is more honest than the numbers. 3-month Treasury bills rose just 6.2 basis points, 2-year yields rose 20.1, and 30-year yields rose 10.2. Short-term bills are anchored to the policy rate; that rate didn’t move, which shows a December move was already priced in. What moved was the 2-year yield: the market lifted the entire path ahead. The spread between 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by 9.9 points in a single day.
What’s more telling is how assets are lining up. Bitcoin $BTC −2.1%, gold $XAU −1.9%, Nasdaq futures −1.0%, S&P 500 −0.5%, dollar +0.6%. The order of the declines matches duration: the further out the cash flows, the harder the hit. Gold is falling too, which shows the market is pricing in higher real rates, not higher inflation expectations. If the market were truly afraid inflation was spiraling out of control, gold should be rising.
There are just two variables: will November core CPI come in at 0.3% for a fourth straight month, and will the December 8–9 move be 25 or 50 basis points? A 25-basis-point move is already priced in at 98.9%. Pricing is pegged to 50.
Meanwhile, the probability of a December rate hike reached 86% after last night’s CPI data came out. With inflation stubbornly high, the Fed’s resolve to raise rates will only grow stronger.
#美国CPI #美联储会议
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.2%. August, September, and October have now each come in at 0.3%. Headline CPI rose 0.4%, versus expectations of 0.3%. Both beat expectations, with core CPI beating by more.
The yield curve is more honest than the numbers. 3-month Treasury bills rose just 6.2 basis points, 2-year yields rose 20.1, and 30-year yields rose 10.2. Short-term bills are anchored to the policy rate; that rate didn’t move, which shows a December move was already priced in. What moved was the 2-year yield: the market lifted the entire path ahead. The spread between 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by 9.9 points in a single day.
What’s more telling is how assets are lining up. Bitcoin $BTC −2.1%, gold $XAU −1.9%, Nasdaq futures −1.0%, S&P 500 −0.5%, dollar +0.6%. The order of the declines matches duration: the further out the cash flows, the harder the hit. Gold is falling too, which shows the market is pricing in higher real rates, not higher inflation expectations. If the market were truly afraid inflation was spiraling out of control, gold should be rising.
There are just two variables: will November core CPI come in at 0.3% for a fourth straight month, and will the December 8–9 move be 25 or 50 basis points? A 25-basis-point move is already priced in at 98.9%. Pricing is pegged to 50.
Meanwhile, the probability of a December rate hike reached 86% after last night’s CPI data came out. With inflation stubbornly high, the Fed’s resolve to raise rates will only grow stronger.
#美国CPI #美联储会议
