Deribit’s daily BTC options settled at 08:00 UTC on November 11; the max pain level based on pre-expiry data was $74,500. Seeing this figure, might BTC holders think spot prices will be “pulled” toward it? This is an editor’s inference about a possible point of confusion in public expiry discussions, not a direct quote from a user. Max pain is a theoretical payout level calculated from open interest; knowing the distribution of positions does not mean the market is predicting a direction.
Before expiry, that day’s contracts accounted for about 0.8% of total Deribit BTC options open interest. In the full hour before expiry, Binance BTCUSDT rose 0.63%; in the first full hour after expiry, it fell 0.49%. These are adjacent windows and do not prove that expiry pushed prices down. Deribit settles using a 30-minute TWAP; options expiring at 08:00 UTC use the average index price from 07:30 to 08:00.
If you hold BTC, assess your exposure based on actual spot price movements and the drawdown you can tolerate; don’t treat max pain as a take-profit or stop-loss price. Compare the full hours before and after the next similar expiry. If prices repeatedly converge toward max pain after broader market movements are ruled out, the original assessment should be reconsidered. Sources: Deribit, Binance; data as of 17:00 HKT.
Before expiry, that day’s contracts accounted for about 0.8% of total Deribit BTC options open interest. In the full hour before expiry, Binance BTCUSDT rose 0.63%; in the first full hour after expiry, it fell 0.49%. These are adjacent windows and do not prove that expiry pushed prices down. Deribit settles using a 30-minute TWAP; options expiring at 08:00 UTC use the average index price from 07:30 to 08:00.
If you hold BTC, assess your exposure based on actual spot price movements and the drawdown you can tolerate; don’t treat max pain as a take-profit or stop-loss price. Compare the full hours before and after the next similar expiry. If prices repeatedly converge toward max pain after broader market movements are ruled out, the original assessment should be reconsidered. Sources: Deribit, Binance; data as of 17:00 HKT.
