$BTC Daily Forecast | Wed 11 Nov 2026
$BTC $73,726 (-1.16% 24h). The last window slid from $74,837 to a $74,093 clearing and printed a new November low of $72,722 on 1,651 $BTC of volume. Price is below every major EMA. Fear & Greed 32 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Thu 12 Nov: $73,630 (68%: $72,490-74,770 | 90%: $71,755-75,505)
Fri 13 Nov: $73,275 (68%: $71,670-74,880 | 90%: $70,635-75,915)
Scenarios (Thu): bull 13% / base 49% / bear 38%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.60): spot under EMA10 ($76,098), EMA20 ($77,670), EMA50 ($79,021) and EMA200 ($75,694), with a fresh monthly low at $72,722.
2. ETF flows (-0.47): Monday 9-Nov -$201m; 3-session -$1.04bn, 7-session -$2.13bn. Tuesday's print not out yet.
3. Funding (-0.05): 24h mean +11.8% annualised (from +5.2%), latest hourly +25.3%, OI flat ~6,128 $BTC . Longs paying up into a falling market.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 32 is mildly contrarian-positive.
5. Liquidity: 1,651 $BTC traded, the heaviest window since the 5-Nov sell-off, so the low came on real volume. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): cautious risk tone (Middle East drone-strike and Nvidia investigation headlines); no crypto-specific catalyst.
Net weighted bias: -0.10 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $72,722 (November low), then $72,490 (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $71,755.
Resistance: $74,770-74,890 (top of the 68% band, last window high), then the EMA200 at $75,694.
Scenario detail
Bull: short-covering back to $75,000 if $72.7k holds.
Base: chop near $73,900 between $72.7k and $74.9k.
Bear: $72.7k fails, $72,600 then $72,000 as outflows persist.
Scorecard: our 11-Nov call was $74,385 vs $74,093 actual (0.39% miss, high). Volatility recalibrated 1.79% -> 1.55%/day; bias to -0.05%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
$BTC $73,726 (-1.16% 24h). The last window slid from $74,837 to a $74,093 clearing and printed a new November low of $72,722 on 1,651 $BTC of volume. Price is below every major EMA. Fear & Greed 32 (Fear).
09:00 London forecast
Thu 12 Nov: $73,630 (68%: $72,490-74,770 | 90%: $71,755-75,505)
Fri 13 Nov: $73,275 (68%: $71,670-74,880 | 90%: $70,635-75,915)
Scenarios (Thu): bull 13% / base 49% / bear 38%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.60): spot under EMA10 ($76,098), EMA20 ($77,670), EMA50 ($79,021) and EMA200 ($75,694), with a fresh monthly low at $72,722.
2. ETF flows (-0.47): Monday 9-Nov -$201m; 3-session -$1.04bn, 7-session -$2.13bn. Tuesday's print not out yet.
3. Funding (-0.05): 24h mean +11.8% annualised (from +5.2%), latest hourly +25.3%, OI flat ~6,128 $BTC . Longs paying up into a falling market.
4. Sentiment (+0.10): Fear & Greed 32 is mildly contrarian-positive.
5. Liquidity: 1,651 $BTC traded, the heaviest window since the 5-Nov sell-off, so the low came on real volume. Vol multiplier x1.0 (weekdays).
6. Macro (-0.05): cautious risk tone (Middle East drone-strike and Nvidia investigation headlines); no crypto-specific catalyst.
Net weighted bias: -0.10 (mild bearish).
Key levels
Support: $72,722 (November low), then $72,490 (bottom of the 68% band). A break opens $71,755.
Resistance: $74,770-74,890 (top of the 68% band, last window high), then the EMA200 at $75,694.
Scenario detail
Bull: short-covering back to $75,000 if $72.7k holds.
Base: chop near $73,900 between $72.7k and $74.9k.
Bear: $72.7k fails, $72,600 then $72,000 as outflows persist.
Scorecard: our 11-Nov call was $74,385 vs $74,093 actual (0.39% miss, high). Volatility recalibrated 1.79% -> 1.55%/day; bias to -0.05%.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
