Trump is preparing a “grand bargain” with Moscow behind Europe’s back — and Brussels has almost no time left to stop it
After a heavy defeat in the midterm elections, Donald Trump lost control of the US domestic agenda, but his hands remain free in foreign policy. In the view of The Guardian columnist Paul Taylor, the US president is rushing to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and European security before January, when the new Democratic Congress takes office.
What the deal could include:
▪️ Transfer control of Ukraine’s occupied territories to Russia.
▪️ Lift Western economic sanctions against Moscow.
▪️ Abandon NATO expansion and reduce the alliance’s forces in Eastern Europe.
▪️ Lucrative energy and business contracts in Russia for Trump’s inner circle.
A possible meeting between Trump and Putin (likely with Xi Jinping taking part) on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen as early as November 18–19 has sparked alarm. Meanwhile, at the current talks in Abu Dhabi, European representatives have effectively been sidelined.
How Kyiv and its allies are being pressured:
Washington has already shown a willingness to force Ukraine into making concessions by selectively restricting the transfer of intelligence and air defense missiles, while Elon Musk cut Starshield network speeds, disrupting the work of Ukrainian drones. Trump could pressure Europe by threatening to withdraw U.S. troops.
How Europe could respond:
Brussels and its allies (including the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, and Turkey) still have strong cards to play, but internal disputes are holding them back:
▪️ Frozen Russian assets: Hundreds of billions of dollars in Europe could be used to provide Ukraine with a major loan covering the next two years, but Belgium’s prime minister opposes the plan, fearing it will hurt his approval ratings.
▪️ Sanctions and air defense: Europe could more aggressively block Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers and provide Kyiv with more Patriot interceptors.
▪️ A united position: European leaders need to make it clear to Washington that any deal made without their participation and consent will not be recognized.
Last year, after the summit in Alaska, Europe managed to present a united front and keep Trump from taking drastic steps. There is almost no time left to build momentum now: if European leaders fail to overcome their differences in the coming weeks, the fate of the entire region’s security will be decided without them.\u003cc-53/\u003e\u003cc-54/\u003e\u003cc-55/\u003e
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