A few casual thoughts before the US market opens
Don’t use last week’s rate-cut story to explain today’s market.
These macro figures are current prices, not history:
Crude oil 86.14 (5-day -5.16%, Yahoo)
US Dollar Index 102.30 (5-day -0.00%)
VIX 19.46 (5-day +17.16%)
So: the Nasdaq is down 1.21% over 5 days, lagging the S&P 500 at -0.63%. Growth stocks are falling behind. Chasing AI coins right now means taking on the beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Crypto: BTC 73879 (-1.32%), funding rate 0.0078% (8h, Binance U-margined). ETH is down 2.90% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -1.32%; the exchange rate is 0.02792. Money is rotating into BTC, so I’m sitting out altcoins until there’s confirmation.
VIX is now 19.46. Once it gets above 18, I cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the US market’s closing price.
My position: I don’t buy the first dip. Until the decline brings open interest down, buying on the way down is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-margined / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I don’t fill in missing figures.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#宏观 #BTC #US stocks
Useful info: The dot plot shows each official’s individual projection; it is not the decision of the next meeting.
Inspiration: The 10-year yield is turning up: valuation stories take a back seat; for spot, I’m only leaving orders at pullback levels.
Data card (same snapshot as the post; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 73,879 -1.32% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,062 -2.90% ETH/BTC 0.02792
S&P 500 7,521 -0.63% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,066 -1.21% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.00% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.46 +17.16% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0078% Open interest 7.38B (24h -0.12) Long/short ratio 2.8168 Binance U-margined
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I’m treating it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the post.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources listed in the post. This is not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Don’t use last week’s rate-cut story to explain today’s market.
These macro figures are current prices, not history:
Crude oil 86.14 (5-day -5.16%, Yahoo)
US Dollar Index 102.30 (5-day -0.00%)
VIX 19.46 (5-day +17.16%)
So: the Nasdaq is down 1.21% over 5 days, lagging the S&P 500 at -0.63%. Growth stocks are falling behind. Chasing AI coins right now means taking on the beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Crypto: BTC 73879 (-1.32%), funding rate 0.0078% (8h, Binance U-margined). ETH is down 2.90% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -1.32%; the exchange rate is 0.02792. Money is rotating into BTC, so I’m sitting out altcoins until there’s confirmation.
VIX is now 19.46. Once it gets above 18, I cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the US market’s closing price.
My position: I don’t buy the first dip. Until the decline brings open interest down, buying on the way down is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-margined / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I don’t fill in missing figures.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#宏观 #BTC #US stocks
Useful info: The dot plot shows each official’s individual projection; it is not the decision of the next meeting.
Inspiration: The 10-year yield is turning up: valuation stories take a back seat; for spot, I’m only leaving orders at pullback levels.
Data card (same snapshot as the post; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 73,879 -1.32% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,062 -2.90% ETH/BTC 0.02792
S&P 500 7,521 -0.63% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,066 -1.21% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.00% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.46 +17.16% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0078% Open interest 7.38B (24h -0.12) Long/short ratio 2.8168 Binance U-margined
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I’m treating it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the post.
These are my personal views; figures are from the sources listed in the post. This is not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL