Goldman reverses course: Fed hikes won’t stop in December — March 2027 is now in the picture.
The facts: Reuters reported on Nov. 11 that Goldman Sachs added a 25-basis-point hike in March 2027 to its forecast, after U.S. inflation came in at 0.4% in October (versus expectations of 0.3%) — the third consecutive month above expectations. Goldman still expects a second hike on Dec. 9, which CME FedWatch says is fully priced in by the market. Goldman is the first major bank to change its forecast following the CPI report. Its chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, sees a March hike as more likely than one in January, and suspects that most FOMC participants will signal a third hike in December’s dot plot. The long-term terminal rate target remains 3.25–3.5%, but rate cuts now won’t begin until December 2027 — a quarter later than previously forecast.
My take: what’s weighing on the market isn’t a single hike, but the longer trajectory: December is already seen as a sure thing, March is now a major bank’s base case, and rate cuts are being pushed back. BTC, around 73,600 (the 15-minute candle that closed at 13:30 WIB), is still below its 200-day average of 76,404 — the market hasn’t found its footing yet. But this is still Goldman’s forecast, not a Fed decision; December’s dot plot and November–December inflation will be decisive.
What I’m watching: the December FOMC dot plot, November CPI, and whether other major banks follow suit and revise their forecasts upward.
Do you think the market has already priced in these three hikes, or could a March surprise put more pressure on it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#TheFed #Inflasi $BTC
The facts: Reuters reported on Nov. 11 that Goldman Sachs added a 25-basis-point hike in March 2027 to its forecast, after U.S. inflation came in at 0.4% in October (versus expectations of 0.3%) — the third consecutive month above expectations. Goldman still expects a second hike on Dec. 9, which CME FedWatch says is fully priced in by the market. Goldman is the first major bank to change its forecast following the CPI report. Its chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, sees a March hike as more likely than one in January, and suspects that most FOMC participants will signal a third hike in December’s dot plot. The long-term terminal rate target remains 3.25–3.5%, but rate cuts now won’t begin until December 2027 — a quarter later than previously forecast.
My take: what’s weighing on the market isn’t a single hike, but the longer trajectory: December is already seen as a sure thing, March is now a major bank’s base case, and rate cuts are being pushed back. BTC, around 73,600 (the 15-minute candle that closed at 13:30 WIB), is still below its 200-day average of 76,404 — the market hasn’t found its footing yet. But this is still Goldman’s forecast, not a Fed decision; December’s dot plot and November–December inflation will be decisive.
What I’m watching: the December FOMC dot plot, November CPI, and whether other major banks follow suit and revise their forecasts upward.
Do you think the market has already priced in these three hikes, or could a March surprise put more pressure on it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#TheFed #Inflasi $BTC