📊 Nvidia falls near its 52-week low: cheaper, but that doesn’t mean you should blindly buy now
On Nov. 10 Eastern time, Nvidia closed at $168.89, down 5.47%, on trading volume roughly three times its average over the past three months. Compared with its Oct. 6 high of $243.37, it has now fallen about 31%, and is only about 3% above its 52-week low of $164.27 on March 30. It even hit an intraday low of $165.89. It’s down about 18% over the past week and still about 9% lower for the year, while the S&P 500 has gained about 10% over the same period.
📈 Its valuation really is a lot cheaper than it has been over the past two years. Its trailing P/E is about 21.4x, and it was still around 38x at the end of fiscal 2026; earlier, 40–50x was common. Based on Wall Street’s estimate of $9.32 in earnings per share for fiscal 2027 (ending in January 2027), it trades at about 18x; the following year’s estimate of $15.93 puts it at about 11x. On the same basis, it’s now cheaper than Broadcom, AMD, and Microsoft. The average sell-side price target is about $326, and Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $310—these are just analysts’ opinions.
🔍 But the fundamentals haven’t been cut enough to explain this drop. Second-quarter revenue was $96.2 billion, including $89 billion from data centers, with a 75% gross margin. Third-quarter guidance is $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, while the Street is still at about $109 billion. Yesterday, the Nasdaq fell just 0.7%, the semiconductor ETF was nearly flat, and Broadcom, AMD, and TSMC all rose, while Nvidia fell 5.5%. The day before, it had already dropped 4.3% while the broader market rebounded. This sell-off is mainly about valuation and sentiment: Jensen Huang has admitted to having an affair, and the board and law enforcement are still investigating allegations of so-called espionage and chip transshipments to China. The allegations have not been substantiated. In addition, second-quarter operating cash flow fell to $24.1 billion from $50.3 billion in the first quarter, while accounts receivable and inventory also rose noticeably. These concerns were already present before the plunge.
🐦 Opinions on Twitter about further declines are not unanimously calling for a “50% haircut.” The main question on everyone’s mind is whether the 52-week low of $164 will break: many think that if the stock decisively falls below $165, there could be a technical gap, with around $150 often mentioned as the next stop—about 11% below the current price. Predictions of a much larger decline usually come with a condition—for example, one person said it could fall another 25% if Huang steps down. Some also worry that next Tuesday’s third-quarter earnings will be a “sell the news” event, and that the stock may not rise even if results are good. At the same time, plenty of people are buying the dip, arguing that the stock is already oversold and near its 52-week low.
⏳ The third-quarter results won’t be released until after the market closes next Tuesday (the morning of Nov. 18 in Shanghai). The market will be watching gross margin (guidance has already fallen to about 74%), visibility into 2028, and whether there are any new developments in the investigation. On top of that, a hotter-than-expected CPI and expectations of a rate hike in December could keep pressure on the stock in the short term.
In a nutshell: its valuation is now more attractive than it has been in recent years, but being cheaper doesn’t mean it’s automatically a good buy right now. The bigger uncertainties are earnings and the investigation, while $164 and $150 are the next levels most often mentioned on Twitter.
On Nov. 10 Eastern time, Nvidia closed at $168.89, down 5.47%, on trading volume roughly three times its average over the past three months. Compared with its Oct. 6 high of $243.37, it has now fallen about 31%, and is only about 3% above its 52-week low of $164.27 on March 30. It even hit an intraday low of $165.89. It’s down about 18% over the past week and still about 9% lower for the year, while the S&P 500 has gained about 10% over the same period.
📈 Its valuation really is a lot cheaper than it has been over the past two years. Its trailing P/E is about 21.4x, and it was still around 38x at the end of fiscal 2026; earlier, 40–50x was common. Based on Wall Street’s estimate of $9.32 in earnings per share for fiscal 2027 (ending in January 2027), it trades at about 18x; the following year’s estimate of $15.93 puts it at about 11x. On the same basis, it’s now cheaper than Broadcom, AMD, and Microsoft. The average sell-side price target is about $326, and Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $310—these are just analysts’ opinions.
🔍 But the fundamentals haven’t been cut enough to explain this drop. Second-quarter revenue was $96.2 billion, including $89 billion from data centers, with a 75% gross margin. Third-quarter guidance is $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, while the Street is still at about $109 billion. Yesterday, the Nasdaq fell just 0.7%, the semiconductor ETF was nearly flat, and Broadcom, AMD, and TSMC all rose, while Nvidia fell 5.5%. The day before, it had already dropped 4.3% while the broader market rebounded. This sell-off is mainly about valuation and sentiment: Jensen Huang has admitted to having an affair, and the board and law enforcement are still investigating allegations of so-called espionage and chip transshipments to China. The allegations have not been substantiated. In addition, second-quarter operating cash flow fell to $24.1 billion from $50.3 billion in the first quarter, while accounts receivable and inventory also rose noticeably. These concerns were already present before the plunge.
🐦 Opinions on Twitter about further declines are not unanimously calling for a “50% haircut.” The main question on everyone’s mind is whether the 52-week low of $164 will break: many think that if the stock decisively falls below $165, there could be a technical gap, with around $150 often mentioned as the next stop—about 11% below the current price. Predictions of a much larger decline usually come with a condition—for example, one person said it could fall another 25% if Huang steps down. Some also worry that next Tuesday’s third-quarter earnings will be a “sell the news” event, and that the stock may not rise even if results are good. At the same time, plenty of people are buying the dip, arguing that the stock is already oversold and near its 52-week low.
⏳ The third-quarter results won’t be released until after the market closes next Tuesday (the morning of Nov. 18 in Shanghai). The market will be watching gross margin (guidance has already fallen to about 74%), visibility into 2028, and whether there are any new developments in the investigation. On top of that, a hotter-than-expected CPI and expectations of a rate hike in December could keep pressure on the stock in the short term.
In a nutshell: its valuation is now more attractive than it has been in recent years, but being cheaper doesn’t mean it’s automatically a good buy right now. The bigger uncertainties are earnings and the investigation, while $164 and $150 are the next levels most often mentioned on Twitter.