$PROM The 4.83 invalidation level we were watching this morning has been broken. Price dipped twice at 14:00, setting a new daily low of 4.587. It’s too soon to rush into buying the dip.
At 02:00, about 3.45 million U in a single hour drove the price from 5.46 down to 4.86. At 03:00, it tested 4.830 and then bounced back. Over the next ten hours, hourly volume was mostly just 300,000–500,000 U. Price gradually broke below 4.83 from 08:00 onward, falling to 4.76 by 13:00. At 14:05, a five-minute candle dropped from 4.764 to 4.667 on about 320,000 U. At 14:10, about 310,000 U bought it back to around 4.74; at 14:15, another roughly 380,000 U pushed the daily low down to 4.587. So far, the full 14:00 hour has seen about 1 million U in volume—still far less than the overnight wave. Price is now around 4.61 (24h: about -17.1%; volume: about 19.15 million U). The contract count rose from about 2.62 million at 01:00 to about 3 million by 13:00, and was still around 3 million when price tested a new low; hardly any positions were closed. With lows being repeatedly refreshed on shrinking volume, don’t buy the dip here just yet. To confirm a bottom, look for volume to expand, hold 4.587, and recover 4.83. If 4.587 breaks again on higher volume while the contract count continues to rise, the next level points to yesterday’s extreme low around 4.324—and support will have failed.
After two dips at 14:00, would you wait for a volume-backed recovery above 4.83 before taking another look?
#PROM失效位已破 #Low-volume retest of the daily low
At 02:00, about 3.45 million U in a single hour drove the price from 5.46 down to 4.86. At 03:00, it tested 4.830 and then bounced back. Over the next ten hours, hourly volume was mostly just 300,000–500,000 U. Price gradually broke below 4.83 from 08:00 onward, falling to 4.76 by 13:00. At 14:05, a five-minute candle dropped from 4.764 to 4.667 on about 320,000 U. At 14:10, about 310,000 U bought it back to around 4.74; at 14:15, another roughly 380,000 U pushed the daily low down to 4.587. So far, the full 14:00 hour has seen about 1 million U in volume—still far less than the overnight wave. Price is now around 4.61 (24h: about -17.1%; volume: about 19.15 million U). The contract count rose from about 2.62 million at 01:00 to about 3 million by 13:00, and was still around 3 million when price tested a new low; hardly any positions were closed. With lows being repeatedly refreshed on shrinking volume, don’t buy the dip here just yet. To confirm a bottom, look for volume to expand, hold 4.587, and recover 4.83. If 4.587 breaks again on higher volume while the contract count continues to rise, the next level points to yesterday’s extreme low around 4.324—and support will have failed.
After two dips at 14:00, would you wait for a volume-backed recovery above 4.83 before taking another look?
#PROM失效位已破 #Low-volume retest of the daily low
