On a night when CPI came in hotter than expected and the Nasdaq fell 0.74%, AI computing stocks finally got a chance to catch their breath.
CoreWeave (CRWV) reported its third-quarter results after the market close on Tuesday: revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year and above the market expectation of about $3.54 billion; adjusted loss per share was $0.95, also better than the expected $1.16. More importantly, its backlog rose to $132.5 billion from $104 billion at the end of Q2, compared with just $55.6 billion a year earlier. The CEO called it a “breakout quarter.”
The company also raised its full-year guidance: 2026 revenue of $13.0–$13.3 billion (previously $12.4–$13.2 billion) and adjusted operating income of $1.275–$1.375 billion. Management said it expects to receive about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Compute rental prices are also rising: rates for compute based on NVIDIA’s previous-generation Ampere and Hopper architectures increased 30%–50% quarter over quarter.
The after-hours trading was dramatic: the stock initially surged toward $54 after the results came out, then briefly fell below the closing price, hitting a low of around $46.50, before recovering all the way to about $54.87—up roughly 12.6% from Tuesday’s regular-session close of $48.73. Peers benefited too: Nebius (NBIS) rose nearly 9% after hours, while Iren (IREN) gained about 4.5%. NBIS is due to report its own earnings on Thursday, so this was something of an early warm-up.
But the other side of this report is just as striking. Third-quarter net loss was $709 million ($1.27 per share), compared with a loss of only $110 million in the same period last year. Interest expense soared from $310 million a year ago to $846 million—more than four times operating income of $207 million—and is expected to rise to $1.05–$1.15 billion in Q4. The company burned through $7.7 billion in free cash flow during the quarter; total debt is about $47 billion, versus only about $4.12 billion in cash on hand, and its full-year capital expenditure guidance is $37–$39 billion. Yields on the company’s bonds are already approaching 15%—bondholders are much more cautious than shareholders.
My take: the demand-side report is certainly solid—backlog has doubled and rental rates are still rising, showing that demand for AI compute is nowhere near peaking. But at its core, this is a company that borrows money to buy GPUs and then rents them out, and its earnings still aren’t enough to cover interest. In the near term, $55.60–$56.55 is the first resistance zone; holding above it could open up more upside. On the downside, the first level to watch is the after-hours low of $46.50, followed by the recent low of $41.26. The consensus rating from 27 Wall Street analysts is still Moderate Buy, with an average price target of about $142.78—but don’t forget that the stock is already down about 65% from its year-to-date high and about 47% over three months. This rebound still has to prove it’s not a “dead-cat bounce.”
Demand for AI compute is picking up again. Do you think this move in CoreWeave marks the start of a turnaround, or have the positive earnings results already been fully priced in?
$CRWV $NBIS
#CoreWeave #AI算力 #美股 #Earnings
Personal research only; this is not investment advice.
CoreWeave (CRWV) reported its third-quarter results after the market close on Tuesday: revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year and above the market expectation of about $3.54 billion; adjusted loss per share was $0.95, also better than the expected $1.16. More importantly, its backlog rose to $132.5 billion from $104 billion at the end of Q2, compared with just $55.6 billion a year earlier. The CEO called it a “breakout quarter.”
The company also raised its full-year guidance: 2026 revenue of $13.0–$13.3 billion (previously $12.4–$13.2 billion) and adjusted operating income of $1.275–$1.375 billion. Management said it expects to receive about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Compute rental prices are also rising: rates for compute based on NVIDIA’s previous-generation Ampere and Hopper architectures increased 30%–50% quarter over quarter.
The after-hours trading was dramatic: the stock initially surged toward $54 after the results came out, then briefly fell below the closing price, hitting a low of around $46.50, before recovering all the way to about $54.87—up roughly 12.6% from Tuesday’s regular-session close of $48.73. Peers benefited too: Nebius (NBIS) rose nearly 9% after hours, while Iren (IREN) gained about 4.5%. NBIS is due to report its own earnings on Thursday, so this was something of an early warm-up.
But the other side of this report is just as striking. Third-quarter net loss was $709 million ($1.27 per share), compared with a loss of only $110 million in the same period last year. Interest expense soared from $310 million a year ago to $846 million—more than four times operating income of $207 million—and is expected to rise to $1.05–$1.15 billion in Q4. The company burned through $7.7 billion in free cash flow during the quarter; total debt is about $47 billion, versus only about $4.12 billion in cash on hand, and its full-year capital expenditure guidance is $37–$39 billion. Yields on the company’s bonds are already approaching 15%—bondholders are much more cautious than shareholders.
My take: the demand-side report is certainly solid—backlog has doubled and rental rates are still rising, showing that demand for AI compute is nowhere near peaking. But at its core, this is a company that borrows money to buy GPUs and then rents them out, and its earnings still aren’t enough to cover interest. In the near term, $55.60–$56.55 is the first resistance zone; holding above it could open up more upside. On the downside, the first level to watch is the after-hours low of $46.50, followed by the recent low of $41.26. The consensus rating from 27 Wall Street analysts is still Moderate Buy, with an average price target of about $142.78—but don’t forget that the stock is already down about 65% from its year-to-date high and about 47% over three months. This rebound still has to prove it’s not a “dead-cat bounce.”
Demand for AI compute is picking up again. Do you think this move in CoreWeave marks the start of a turnaround, or have the positive earnings results already been fully priced in?
$CRWV $NBIS
#CoreWeave #AI算力 #美股 #Earnings
Personal research only; this is not investment advice.
