The biggest shock on CPI night wasn’t U.S. stocks—it was Treasuries: the 2-year yield jumped 18 basis points in a day, its biggest rise since last April; the 10-year briefly climbed back above 5%.
A 5% yield on the 10-year means you can earn 5% just by sitting back. Something like Bitcoin, which pays no yield, naturally becomes less attractive.
The Fed has been hawkish across the board these past two days: Waller said a core reading of 0.3% should prompt consideration of a 50-basis-point hike; Goolsbee called inflation “concerning”; Schmid said rates are “quite accommodative.” The market is pricing in three more hikes by the end of 2027.
Big Brother’s take: The weakness in Bitcoin this cycle isn’t rooted in crypto news, but in interest rates. As long as the 10-year yield holds above 5%, Bitcoin is unlikely to mount a meaningful rebound. It’s at 7.36w now; the bearish view stands, and 7.546w isn’t enough to turn bullish.
Where do you think the 10-year yield will be by year-end: back below 5%, or up to 5.2%? #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 $BTC
A 5% yield on the 10-year means you can earn 5% just by sitting back. Something like Bitcoin, which pays no yield, naturally becomes less attractive.
The Fed has been hawkish across the board these past two days: Waller said a core reading of 0.3% should prompt consideration of a 50-basis-point hike; Goolsbee called inflation “concerning”; Schmid said rates are “quite accommodative.” The market is pricing in three more hikes by the end of 2027.
Big Brother’s take: The weakness in Bitcoin this cycle isn’t rooted in crypto news, but in interest rates. As long as the 10-year yield holds above 5%, Bitcoin is unlikely to mount a meaningful rebound. It’s at 7.36w now; the bearish view stands, and 7.546w isn’t enough to turn bullish.
Where do you think the 10-year yield will be by year-end: back below 5%, or up to 5.2%? #CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 $BTC
