A hotter-than-expected CPI is stoking rate-hike expectations, while U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 5%. The crypto market remains under pressure, BTC is holding near $73K, and sentiment remains fearful.
Market Overview
After the inflation data shock last night, the crypto market as a whole hit a recent low before seeing a slight rebound
Bitcoin (BTC): Around $73,700, with 24-hour fluctuations ranging from -1% to +2%; market cap of approximately $1.48 trillion.
Ethereum (ETH): Around $2,060, relatively weak.
Other major tokens: SOL around $83, XRP around $1.06, and BNB around $682.
Total market cap: Approximately $2.54 trillion (up around 1.8%); BTC dominance around 58%–60%.
Fear and Greed Index: 30 (Fear zone), remains low.
The market faced significant selling pressure after the U.S. CPI release, followed by an oversold rebound. Overall, however, risk appetite remains subdued, while trading volume and leveraged liquidations are elevated.
Key News
U.S. October CPI came in above expectations: headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month (vs. 0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3% (vs. 0.2% expected). Although this was slower than September’s 0.6%, it was still above market expectations, and core inflation remains sticky. Waller said he supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while leaving open the possibility of a larger hike. This directly boosted the probability of a December Fed rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields rose (with the 10-year yield nearing 5%), weighing on risk assets.
Ongoing spot ETF outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative outflows of over $1 billion in the past five trading days, with outflows totaling approximately $1.48 billion so far in November. Spot ETH ETFs also saw outflows. Institutional withdrawals have weakened buying support.
Leveraged liquidations and deteriorating sentiment: Liquidations across the crypto market totaled over $500–700 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for a large share (around 80%+). Both ETH and BTC saw significant liquidations. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen into the Fear zone, and market risk appetite has declined significantly.
Other context: Over the weekend, turmoil involving Nvidia’s CEO and geopolitical factors triggered more than $1 billion in liquidations. BTC briefly fell to around $73,500, near a three-month low. Hawkish comments from Fed officials further reinforced rate-hike expectations.
Macroeconomic data and fund flows are the main drivers at present, with the crypto market showing a clear correlation with U.S. equities and other risk assets.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): The price is fluctuating in the $73,000–$75,000 range, after testing support near $72,700 overnight and rebounding. Technically, it has fallen below some short-term moving averages (with clear resistance above, including around the 50-day and 200-day EMAs) and is near the bottom of a correction channel. Key support: $73,000–$72,500 (a break below could lead to a test of the psychological $70,000 level); resistance: $75,000–$76,500 (holding above this range is needed to ease downward pressure). The short-term outlook is cautious. Any rebound should be assessed alongside whether ETF outflows ease and how subsequent macroeconomic data are interpreted.
Ethereum (ETH): Under pressure around $2,100, it tested the $2,000 level overnight. It is weaker than BTC, showing signs of six consecutive weeks of weakness, and its rebound has been feeble after it fell below the weekly moving average. Support is at $2,000, with resistance around $2,100–$2,200. Altcoins broadly followed the decline, with SOL, XRP, and others falling more sharply.
Overall Assessment:
Short term: The macro backdrop is in the driver’s seat. Above-forecast CPI, rising rate-hike expectations, and ETF outflows are creating a triple headwind. The market is in a “Fear” state, making a technical rebound after panic selling possible, though its staying power is uncertain.
Medium term: If the Fed shifts to a more hawkish path (hiking rather than cutting rates), pressure on risk assets may persist through year-end. As a barometer of risk sentiment, BTC’s synchronized weakness with commodities such as copper is something to watch closely.
For now, this looks more like an oversold rebound than a trend reversal. Watch whether the price can reclaim and hold above $75,000.
Today’s crypto market was driven mainly by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation. BTC is struggling to hold support near $73K, while ETF outflows and high leveraged liquidations are amplifying volatility. Sentiment is fearful, and the short-term outlook is predominantly choppy and weak. Closely monitor upcoming comments from Fed officials, Treasury yields, and changes in ETF fund flows.
The views expressed above are personal and for reference only; they do not constitute investment advice. Please manage your own risk and DYOR.
