I just came across Binance Research’s November monthly report, and one point struck me as interesting: what determines Bitcoin’s trajectory may not be how high interest rates are, but how quickly the global wave of rate hikes is spreading. They calculated that since 2021, changes in the pace of monetary tightening and Bitcoin’s six-month returns have had a correlation of -0.62. Historically, Bitcoin has often performed better when the pace of tightening slows. The report says that eight G10 central banks have raised rates over the past six months, but the pace of rate hikes peaked in July and has since been declining. If this trend continues, the momentum indicator could fall from 0.8 to around 0.3 by January. When Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, the rate-hike diffusion index was still high, yet its six-month return turned positive by February 2023—well before the G10 actually began cutting rates.
I think the logic makes sense, but we shouldn’t look at this in isolation. The market is now pricing in an over 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, and the 10-year Treasury yield is still hovering around 5%. If December brings a hawkish surprise, short-term pressure could return. I’m personally leaning somewhat bullish, but only on the condition that inflation and Treasury yields don’t push higher again. I’ll keep a close eye on that.
Another figure in the report caught my attention: Binance’s Bstocks reached $1 billion in size just 125 days after launch, with an on-chain utilization rate of 18.54%—well above the industry average of 13.91%. And 56% of trading volume took place after the U.S. stock market closed, with emerging markets accounting for about 70% of trading. This suggests that tokenized stocks aren’t just being issued and left to sit—they’re actually being used.
Source: Binance Research’s November Monthly Market Insights report; Bitcoin.com report dated November 10
$BTC $ETH
Not investment advice
I think the logic makes sense, but we shouldn’t look at this in isolation. The market is now pricing in an over 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, and the 10-year Treasury yield is still hovering around 5%. If December brings a hawkish surprise, short-term pressure could return. I’m personally leaning somewhat bullish, but only on the condition that inflation and Treasury yields don’t push higher again. I’ll keep a close eye on that.
Another figure in the report caught my attention: Binance’s Bstocks reached $1 billion in size just 125 days after launch, with an on-chain utilization rate of 18.54%—well above the industry average of 13.91%. And 56% of trading volume took place after the U.S. stock market closed, with emerging markets accounting for about 70% of trading. This suggests that tokenized stocks aren’t just being issued and left to sit—they’re actually being used.
Source: Binance Research’s November Monthly Market Insights report; Bitcoin.com report dated November 10
$BTC $ETH
Not investment advice