Price is down 10%, but BTC in futures is up 12%.
The latest figures from K33: BTC perpetual open interest has reached 353,000 BTC, at the 99th percentile for the past two years. Only 1.2% of trading days over that period saw levels this high. Over the same 30-day stretch, BTC fell about 10%.
As prices kept falling, positions kept piling up. There are plenty of people going long to buy the dip below, while others are chasing shorts above. Both sides are packed. At a time like this, honestly, direction matters less than who gets forced out first.
Last night’s 0.4% CPI print gave us a demonstration: more than $700 million was liquidated across the market in 24 hours, mostly longs.
There’s another number that I find even more unsettling. BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.75, at the 99th percentile since 2020. The so-called independent price action is now basically just a high-beta version of the Nasdaq 🫠
So, is all this open interest fuel or dynamite? Watch $73,000. Wintermute says that’s the 200-day moving average; if BTC can’t hold it on a daily close, they’re looking at $68,000. BTC is hovering around $73,700 now, less than a grand from that line.
#比特币 #合约 #美联储 $BTC
The latest figures from K33: BTC perpetual open interest has reached 353,000 BTC, at the 99th percentile for the past two years. Only 1.2% of trading days over that period saw levels this high. Over the same 30-day stretch, BTC fell about 10%.
As prices kept falling, positions kept piling up. There are plenty of people going long to buy the dip below, while others are chasing shorts above. Both sides are packed. At a time like this, honestly, direction matters less than who gets forced out first.
Last night’s 0.4% CPI print gave us a demonstration: more than $700 million was liquidated across the market in 24 hours, mostly longs.
There’s another number that I find even more unsettling. BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.75, at the 99th percentile since 2020. The so-called independent price action is now basically just a high-beta version of the Nasdaq 🫠
So, is all this open interest fuel or dynamite? Watch $73,000. Wintermute says that’s the 200-day moving average; if BTC can’t hold it on a daily close, they’re looking at $68,000. BTC is hovering around $73,700 now, less than a grand from that line.
#比特币 #合约 #美联储 $BTC