Yesterday, the bond market spoke loudest, and its message was: The Fed could raise rates by 50 basis points at once.
The facts: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5 percent on Tuesday (CNN, Nov. 10), then settled around 4.98 percent. The 2-year yield surged 17–19 basis points in a day, its biggest daily jump since April 2025. The trigger: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to supporting a 50-basis-point hike in December if core inflation stayed at 0.3 percent or higher—and October’s core CPI did come in at 0.3 percent, for the third consecutive month. CME FedWatch now shows a 91 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike and about a 9 percent chance of a 50-basis-point hike; the day before, the chance of a 50-basis-point hike was still 0 percent.
My take: this explains why BTC is struggling to recover, even though it’s back above 73,436, with the 4H close at 03:00 WIB at 73,763 and the price now around 73,725. That reclaim eases short-term pressure, but as long as the bond market is pricing in a more aggressive Fed, every BTC bounce runs into a ceiling. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan even said at least two more rate hikes are needed.
What I’m watching: the 4H close at 11:00 WIB, whether it holds above 73,436 or falls back below, and whether the 10-year yield breaks above 5 percent again.
Do you think the market is too worried about the 50-basis-point scenario, or is it still underestimating it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#TheFed #Obligasi $BTC
The facts: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5 percent on Tuesday (CNN, Nov. 10), then settled around 4.98 percent. The 2-year yield surged 17–19 basis points in a day, its biggest daily jump since April 2025. The trigger: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to supporting a 50-basis-point hike in December if core inflation stayed at 0.3 percent or higher—and October’s core CPI did come in at 0.3 percent, for the third consecutive month. CME FedWatch now shows a 91 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike and about a 9 percent chance of a 50-basis-point hike; the day before, the chance of a 50-basis-point hike was still 0 percent.
My take: this explains why BTC is struggling to recover, even though it’s back above 73,436, with the 4H close at 03:00 WIB at 73,763 and the price now around 73,725. That reclaim eases short-term pressure, but as long as the bond market is pricing in a more aggressive Fed, every BTC bounce runs into a ceiling. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan even said at least two more rate hikes are needed.
What I’m watching: the 4H close at 11:00 WIB, whether it holds above 73,436 or falls back below, and whether the 10-year yield breaks above 5 percent again.
Do you think the market is too worried about the 50-basis-point scenario, or is it still underestimating it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#TheFed #Obligasi $BTC