Defensive pullback in the $AVAX trend

The short-term trend of $AVAX indicates a pullback within an ascending channel, offering an area of interest near the $8.41‑$8.49 level. The price fell 0.3% in the last hour, but the MACD remains positive and the RSI is at 56/53, suggesting buying pressure is still present.

Suggested entry between $8.4107 and $8.4933, with a stop at $7.9470 and targets at $9.2095 and $9.7146, resulting in a risk-reward ratio of 1.5. The asymmetry favors the trade, but 1h volume is only 0.5x normal, reinforcing the need to wait for a retest confirmation before increasing the position.

Alternatively, the setup of $SECZB offers an entry between $8.5176‑$8.8001, a stop at $7.7716, and targets at $9.8700‑$10.7572, with an R/R of 1.4. Although the risk-reward is similar, the relative volume of 2.1x makes this scenario more robust, though it still requires breakout confirmation.

The global market has a total capitalization of $2.48 trillion, down 4.1% in 24h, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 29, indicating prevailing fear. BTC is down 1.05% and ETH 2.44%, reinforcing risk aversion. News of geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates in the U.S. are supporting this defensive scenario, diverting flows from altcoins to safer assets.

Among the rapid moves, $INIT rose 66.1% in 24h and 12.9% in the last hour, setting up a tactical continuation that still lacks clear confirmation; the risk of chasing is high.

Scenario 1 – Continuation: if $AVAX moves back above $8.55, the $9.21 target becomes plausible, with a possible extension to $9.71.
Scenario 2 – Invalidation: a drop below $7.95 triggers the stop and could lead to a deeper correction, testing the low of $8.07.

What level of $AVAX do you consider critical to confirm the trend's resumption?