Daily Macro Crypto Report · 2026-11-11 11:00
Conclusion: The phase is unchanged—the backdrop remains stagflationary tightening + broad deleveraging/risk repricing, with tightening expectations instead growing stronger.
Today’s focus: U.S. October CPI came in above expectations (headline +0.4% month over month, core +0.3%; the third consecutive +0.3% core reading reached Waller’s 50bp threshold for consideration). December rate-hike pricing is at 100%, while the probability of a 50bp hike rose from around 1% to around 15%; the 10Y returned to 4.98%, the 30Y to 5.35%; BTC briefly fell below its 200-day moving average intraday, while ETH closed below its 200-day moving average for the second consecutive day.
Major events today:
The House’s final vote on the stopgap funding bill to end the shutdown (Wednesday evening U.S. Eastern Time);
Veterans Day—U.S. equity markets open, bond markets closed, with thin liquidity;
U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi.
Conclusion: The phase is unchanged—the backdrop remains stagflationary tightening + broad deleveraging/risk repricing, with tightening expectations instead growing stronger.
Today’s focus: U.S. October CPI came in above expectations (headline +0.4% month over month, core +0.3%; the third consecutive +0.3% core reading reached Waller’s 50bp threshold for consideration). December rate-hike pricing is at 100%, while the probability of a 50bp hike rose from around 1% to around 15%; the 10Y returned to 4.98%, the 30Y to 5.35%; BTC briefly fell below its 200-day moving average intraday, while ETH closed below its 200-day moving average for the second consecutive day.
Major events today:
The House’s final vote on the stopgap funding bill to end the shutdown (Wednesday evening U.S. Eastern Time);
Veterans Day—U.S. equity markets open, bond markets closed, with thin liquidity;
U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi.