I. Today’s View

Bitcoin is at $73,382, down 1.92% over the past 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,052.8, down 3.17%. Both coins are hovering near the lower end of their 7-day ranges. Bitcoin is less than 1% above its 7-day low of $72,727, while Ethereum is just over 2% above its low of $2,006. Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading range was 3.17%, below the 7-day average of 3.73%. This suggests neither bulls nor bears have gained the upper hand for now, but prices are trending lower.

The root cause of this latest crypto market decline is a shift in macroeconomic expectations. After the October CPI data was released, inflation failed to continue easing as the market had hoped; instead, it came in hotter than expected. High inflation means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates and could even raise them again. Deutsche Bank has already forecast 25-basis-point rate hikes in December, January, and March, taking the target range to 4.50%–4.75%. Interest rates are the price of money. Rising rate expectations make it more expensive to borrow dollars to invest in assets, while dollar holders are more inclined to buy risk-free Treasuries rather than highly volatile Bitcoin. This shift from high-risk to low-risk assets is known as a contraction in risk appetite. Gold has also been sold off for the same reason, falling as much as 3%. This underscores the broad pressure that expectations of rate hikes are putting on non-yielding assets.

The long-short ratio is 48.73:51.27, with slightly more shorts, though the gap is small. The Fear and Greed Index is 30, indicating a cautious market but not extreme fear. The Texas bill allowing cities and counties to invest in Bitcoin is a long-term positive, but it may not take effect until September 2027, and the cap is $10 million per city or county, so it is unlikely to directly lift prices in the short term. What really needs watching next is whether Fed officials make further comments on a possible 50-basis-point hike in December, and whether outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow.

II. Today's News

1. Deutsche Bank: Fed expected to deliver three consecutive rate hikes

This news was the most direct macroeconomic trigger for today's market decline. After October's CPI data came in higher than expected, Deutsche Bank added a January rate hike next year to its forecast. It expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, January, and March, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.50%–4.75%. The bank also said that, in light of recent hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, a 50-basis-point hike in December cannot be ruled out, though it is not the base case. Rising rate expectations directly increase the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, weighing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, which do not generate interest. Today's declines in both coins, and gold's brief 3% drop, reflect the same underlying dynamic.

2. Bowman: Bringing inflation down remains a priority

Fed Governor Bowman has made a series of hawkish comments, emphasizing that bringing inflation down remains a priority. She expects core PCE inflation to move closer to 2% only next year, and believes stock valuations are at risk of a substantial correction. When officials repeatedly emphasize the inflation target, markets are more likely to believe the Fed will not pivot to easing in the near term and may even continue raising rates. These expectations are already reflected in futures market pricing and have accelerated capital's exit from risk assets. For crypto markets, expectations of tighter macroeconomic liquidity will continue to weigh on risk appetite until new data show inflation falling again.

3. Gold briefly falls 3% as Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on prices

Against the backdrop of hotter-than-expected CPI data and Fed officials' comments reinforcing rate-hike expectations, spot gold briefly fell 3%, dropping below $4,015 per ounce. Like Bitcoin, gold does not generate interest. When markets expect rates to rise, the opportunity cost of holding these assets increases, and capital flows toward assets with more certain returns, such as government bonds. The fact that even gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, was sold off shows how firmly markets are pricing in rate hikes, making it harder for crypto markets to remain unaffected.

4. Texas lawmaker introduces bill allowing cities and counties to invest up to $10 million in Bitcoin

Texas Representative Ron Reynolds introduced HB 815, a bill that would allow each city and county in the state to invest up to $10 million in public funds in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. If enacted, it would take effect on September 1, 2027. This is a long-term institutional positive, signaling growing interest among U.S. local governments in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. However, the bill still has to go through the legislative process, and the $10 million cap for each city or county offers virtually no direct support for prices in the short term. It is included in today's news because regulatory developments are an important factor affecting the crypto market's valuation potential. If more states follow suit, expectations for long-term capital inflows could change.

III. Crypto Calendar

Today's Events

• 14:00: Aptos (APT) to unlock approximately 4.54 million tokens, worth about $2.7 million — The unlock will make these tokens tradable. If holders choose to sell, it will increase market supply, but the amount is small and its impact on APT's price is likely to be limited.

• 21:00: Allora (ALLO) to unlock approximately 160 million tokens, worth about $23.7 million — The large unlock could create some short-term selling pressure on ALLO, but the actual impact will depend on holders' willingness to sell after the tokens are unlocked. This is worth monitoring as a secondary indicator.

Upcoming Events

• November 12, 08:00: peaq (PEAQ) to unlock approximately 82.21 million tokens, worth about $2.4 million — The amount is small, with minimal impact on the broader market; the project's token itself may see some slight volatility.

• November 13, 08:00: Aztec (AZTEC) to unlock approximately 797 million tokens, worth about $10.3 million — The unlock represents a relatively high proportion of the supply, so token price pressure should be monitored, although the dollar value is still in the small-to-medium range.

• November 13, time TBA: Kaia public delegated staking users must manually migrate to a new contract; detailed instructions to be released today — This is a technical migration event that may affect staking liquidity for some users, but its impact on the broader market is limited.

• November 14, 11:00: YZY (YZY) to unlock approximately 29.17 million tokens, worth about $8.4 million — The medium-sized unlock may create temporary pressure on YZY's price.

• November 14, time TBA: The planned fixed-rate redemption of Neutrl NUSD/sNUSD for USDC is expected to end — The closure of this stablecoin redemption window may affect the stablecoin's liquidity structure, but is unlikely to have much impact on the broader market in the short term.

IV. Sentiment Monitoring

Community discussion is divided overall, but cautious voices are somewhat more prevalent. The main focus is on rising expectations of macroeconomic rate hikes. After October's CPI data came in hotter than expected, discussions repeatedly linked the possibility of the Fed resuming rate hikes with pressure on risk assets. Bearish commenters say this will lead to continued outflows from the crypto market. Another frequently mentioned topic is the run of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Many interpret this as institutional investors pulling out, although the outflow amounts have not yet been confirmed by official data; the narrative has already become one of the reasons cited for the downturn. Discussion has also focused on changes in Bitcoin wallet distribution, with fewer small wallets and more large wallets. But ETF selling is outpacing whale buying, leaving prices weak. Some also point to miner selling and deleveraging as sources of selling pressure.

Bullish discussion has focused on signs of dip-buying after the sharp decline. A whale address made a large purchase of Ethereum when its price was near $2,000. Some in the community speculate that smart money is buying the dip amid the panic, though the buyer's identity and intentions cannot be confirmed. Others believe Bitcoin's drop to around $73,000 brought it back near its annual average, creating a potential buying opportunity, and that bearish sentiment may be excessive. Opinions are sharply divided on whether an altcoin season can begin: some believe the narrative has failed and capital is flowing out, while others are highly optimistic about the market's prospects.

Overall sentiment combines caution with anticipation. The consensus is that macroeconomic factors and ETF outflows are weighing on risk appetite in the short term, but there is no clear agreement on whether a bottom is near.

This article is compiled from market data, important news, and sentiment monitoring for the day. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.