CPI beat expectations by just 0.1%. Why did the market react so strongly?
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, versus expectations of 0.3%.
It may seem like a difference of just 0.1 percentage point, but the market reaction was significant.
The reason isn’t that 0.1 is a big number in itself, but that it changed market expectations for the rate path in December.
Previously, the main discussion was about a 25 bp rate hike. Now, the possibility of a 50 bp hike is also being seriously priced in by the market.
For crypto, what really matters isn’t whether the economic data looks good or bad on the surface, but whether it changes the cost of capital and risk appetite.
That’s why macro analysis shouldn’t focus only on the CPI figure; it should also look at whether Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and ETF flows are moving in sync.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, versus expectations of 0.3%.
It may seem like a difference of just 0.1 percentage point, but the market reaction was significant.
The reason isn’t that 0.1 is a big number in itself, but that it changed market expectations for the rate path in December.
Previously, the main discussion was about a 25 bp rate hike. Now, the possibility of a 50 bp hike is also being seriously priced in by the market.
For crypto, what really matters isn’t whether the economic data looks good or bad on the surface, but whether it changes the cost of capital and risk appetite.
That’s why macro analysis shouldn’t focus only on the CPI figure; it should also look at whether Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and ETF flows are moving in sync.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
