U.S. CPI for October came in a little hotter than expected, and crypto made a move overnight.
A few points to go over:
1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday (November 10, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time) that October CPI rose 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% forecast in a Dow Jones survey but below September’s 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% forecast and unchanged from September. Because the 2025 October government shutdown meant complete data could not be collected, no year-over-year figure was released this time. Housing accounted for more than 30% of the overall increase.
2. Before the data was released, Fed Governor Waller said in a speech in London that if core CPI was around 0.3%, a 50-basis-point rate hike in December should be on the table. CNBC, citing CME FedWatch, reported that markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike rose to about 13.6% from close to zero previously. Dallas Fed President Logan said after the data was released that she thought two more hikes of 25 basis points each were needed. At its October meeting, the Fed voted 10–2 to keep the policy rate at 3.75%–4%.
3. CoinDesk and others reported that Bitcoin briefly fell below $73,000 after the data was released, its lowest level since August 20. OKX spot prices hit a 24-hour low of about $72,727. At the time of writing (the morning of November 11, Beijing time), BTC was fluctuating around $73,300, down about 2% from 24 hours earlier; ETH was around $2,050, with a somewhat larger decline. Liquidation figures vary across sources, but all point to deleveraging led by long positions.
My take: A hotter-than-expected month-over-month reading doesn’t mean a 50-basis-point hike in December has been decided. The prevailing market pricing is still for 25 basis points. Since there’s no year-over-year figure to compare this time, we should be even more cautious about drawing conclusions from a single month. Markets have already brought rate-hike expectations forward somewhat, so short-term volatility may increase, but I’m not using this one data release to call a bottom or chase a short.
This is a summary of publicly available reports and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
A few points to go over:
1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday (November 10, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time) that October CPI rose 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% forecast in a Dow Jones survey but below September’s 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% forecast and unchanged from September. Because the 2025 October government shutdown meant complete data could not be collected, no year-over-year figure was released this time. Housing accounted for more than 30% of the overall increase.
2. Before the data was released, Fed Governor Waller said in a speech in London that if core CPI was around 0.3%, a 50-basis-point rate hike in December should be on the table. CNBC, citing CME FedWatch, reported that markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike rose to about 13.6% from close to zero previously. Dallas Fed President Logan said after the data was released that she thought two more hikes of 25 basis points each were needed. At its October meeting, the Fed voted 10–2 to keep the policy rate at 3.75%–4%.
3. CoinDesk and others reported that Bitcoin briefly fell below $73,000 after the data was released, its lowest level since August 20. OKX spot prices hit a 24-hour low of about $72,727. At the time of writing (the morning of November 11, Beijing time), BTC was fluctuating around $73,300, down about 2% from 24 hours earlier; ETH was around $2,050, with a somewhat larger decline. Liquidation figures vary across sources, but all point to deleveraging led by long positions.
My take: A hotter-than-expected month-over-month reading doesn’t mean a 50-basis-point hike in December has been decided. The prevailing market pricing is still for 25 basis points. Since there’s no year-over-year figure to compare this time, we should be even more cautious about drawing conclusions from a single month. Markets have already brought rate-hike expectations forward somewhat, so short-term volatility may increase, but I’m not using this one data release to call a bottom or chase a short.
This is a summary of publicly available reports and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
