Guys!! Last night’s October CPI came in hotter than expected, and Bitcoin plunged straight through $74,000!!!
Official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (November 10): Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus the Dow Jones consensus of 0.3%; core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%—core inflation has been stuck at 0.3% for three straight months. It was a little slower than September’s 0.6%, but still hotter than expected!!! Shelter rose 0.3% month over month, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase by itself; food rose 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7%. And here’s the catch: because the government shutdown last October meant data wasn’t collected, officials still aren’t publishing the year-over-year figure this time, haha.
What stings even more is that this data landed right on the line Waller drew this morning!!! In his London speech, he said that if core inflation is still around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered. Dallas Fed President Logan also weighed in after the data came out, saying she thinks at least two more 25-basis-point hikes are needed, and that the pace could even pick up this winter~
U.S. stocks made their displeasure clear last night: the Nasdaq closed down about 0.7%, and the S&P 500 fell about 0.4% (AFP / AP). The 10-year Treasury yield closed at around 4.98%, while the 2-year yield rose about 17 basis points to 4.73%. According to CME FedWatch, a 25-basis-point hike in December is now almost fully priced in, and the odds of a 50-basis-point hike have risen from near zero to a little over 10%.
Seriously, stop fantasizing that “CPI comes out and we take off” is all there is to it!!! The data came in hot and rate-hike expectations are firmer, so don’t chase the initial bounce.
I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around $73,600 (down about 2% in 24 hours), already testing—and even slightly breaking below—the weekend low of $73,800; ETH is around $2,053 (down about 3.5% in a day), BNB around $681, and SOL around $83. The total crypto market cap is around $2.47 trillion, down about 4.3% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is 29, still in fear territory~
One more catch today: it’s Veterans Day in the U.S. Stocks are open as usual, but the bond market is closed, so liquidity will be thinner. Don’t go piling into leverage just yet; let’s wait until the bond market reopens Thursday and then see where things are headed!!!
Do you think Bitcoin will hold $73,000 first, or keep sliding toward $70,000?
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #Crypto
Official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (November 10): Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus the Dow Jones consensus of 0.3%; core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%—core inflation has been stuck at 0.3% for three straight months. It was a little slower than September’s 0.6%, but still hotter than expected!!! Shelter rose 0.3% month over month, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase by itself; food rose 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7%. And here’s the catch: because the government shutdown last October meant data wasn’t collected, officials still aren’t publishing the year-over-year figure this time, haha.
What stings even more is that this data landed right on the line Waller drew this morning!!! In his London speech, he said that if core inflation is still around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered. Dallas Fed President Logan also weighed in after the data came out, saying she thinks at least two more 25-basis-point hikes are needed, and that the pace could even pick up this winter~
U.S. stocks made their displeasure clear last night: the Nasdaq closed down about 0.7%, and the S&P 500 fell about 0.4% (AFP / AP). The 10-year Treasury yield closed at around 4.98%, while the 2-year yield rose about 17 basis points to 4.73%. According to CME FedWatch, a 25-basis-point hike in December is now almost fully priced in, and the odds of a 50-basis-point hike have risen from near zero to a little over 10%.
Seriously, stop fantasizing that “CPI comes out and we take off” is all there is to it!!! The data came in hot and rate-hike expectations are firmer, so don’t chase the initial bounce.
I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around $73,600 (down about 2% in 24 hours), already testing—and even slightly breaking below—the weekend low of $73,800; ETH is around $2,053 (down about 3.5% in a day), BNB around $681, and SOL around $83. The total crypto market cap is around $2.47 trillion, down about 4.3% in 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is 29, still in fear territory~
One more catch today: it’s Veterans Day in the U.S. Stocks are open as usual, but the bond market is closed, so liquidity will be thinner. Don’t go piling into leverage just yet; let’s wait until the bond market reopens Thursday and then see where things are headed!!!
Do you think Bitcoin will hold $73,000 first, or keep sliding toward $70,000?
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #Crypto