BTC’s 76K bottoming phase is over. The next stop is 68K–70K
❗️
Believe it?
❓
CPI came in above expectations across the board: core monthly inflation was 0.3%, headline inflation was 0.4%, and a rate hike in December is all but certain.
BTC fell to a low of 72.7K today before rebounding to just below 74K. This bounce is a “dead cat bounce,” not a reversal.
The slow, stair-step decline can lull you into a false sense of security and catch you off guard.
Why do I expect the next target to be 68K–70K?
(1) ETFs have seen $1.177 billion in outflows over three weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the lion’s share. Institutions keep pulling out.
(2) Whales on derivatives platforms have turned net short for the first time in seven months.
(3) Spot demand is weak, while short-term holders are still moving coins to exchanges.
(4) Rate-hike expectations are weighing on the market, Treasury yields remain above 5%, the dollar index is at 102, and the Jensen Huang situation remains unresolved.
Although oil prices have fallen to around $90, buying support for BTC is relatively weak right now, so the price is likely to keep gradually drifting lower.
The pattern is a choppy, gradual decline—not a sudden waterfall drop.
73.5K has been tested repeatedly, with buyers stepping in each time to provide some support. But once that support is exhausted, the price keeps grinding lower. This kind of price action is especially draining and dangerous because it keeps making bulls think “the bottom is in,” only for them to get caught again and again.
68K–70K is the key target zone for this cycle. 70K is the dividing line for a deep correction, while 68K is the 200-week moving average and a deep-value zone for long-term capital. That’s when it will truly be worth taking a closer look.
Don’t chase shorts or buy the dip right now.
Wait for the CPI headwind to be fully priced in, for 73.5K to be decisively breached, and for signs of support in the 68K–70K range.
❗️
Believe it?
❓
CPI came in above expectations across the board: core monthly inflation was 0.3%, headline inflation was 0.4%, and a rate hike in December is all but certain.
BTC fell to a low of 72.7K today before rebounding to just below 74K. This bounce is a “dead cat bounce,” not a reversal.
The slow, stair-step decline can lull you into a false sense of security and catch you off guard.
Why do I expect the next target to be 68K–70K?
(1) ETFs have seen $1.177 billion in outflows over three weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the lion’s share. Institutions keep pulling out.
(2) Whales on derivatives platforms have turned net short for the first time in seven months.
(3) Spot demand is weak, while short-term holders are still moving coins to exchanges.
(4) Rate-hike expectations are weighing on the market, Treasury yields remain above 5%, the dollar index is at 102, and the Jensen Huang situation remains unresolved.
Although oil prices have fallen to around $90, buying support for BTC is relatively weak right now, so the price is likely to keep gradually drifting lower.
The pattern is a choppy, gradual decline—not a sudden waterfall drop.
73.5K has been tested repeatedly, with buyers stepping in each time to provide some support. But once that support is exhausted, the price keeps grinding lower. This kind of price action is especially draining and dangerous because it keeps making bulls think “the bottom is in,” only for them to get caught again and again.
68K–70K is the key target zone for this cycle. 70K is the dividing line for a deep correction, while 68K is the 200-week moving average and a deep-value zone for long-term capital. That’s when it will truly be worth taking a closer look.
Don’t chase shorts or buy the dip right now.
Wait for the CPI headwind to be fully priced in, for 73.5K to be decisively breached, and for signs of support in the 68K–70K range.
