CPI’s monthly increase fell to 0.4%, but interest-rate pressure on BTC has not eased
This drop in inflation is not enough to support the view that “the macro environment is starting to loosen.” For those watching BTC, it’s not enough to see that the increase was lower than last month’s; you also need to consider that it was higher than expected and how the bond market reacted.
The data released on November 10 was for the U.S. in October: seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, down from 0.6% in September but above the 0.3% forecast reported by CoinDesk. Prices rose a little more slowly, but they are still rising.
More noteworthy is core CPI, which excludes food and energy. It rose 0.3% month over month in each of August, September, and October, with no further slowdown. The smaller overall increase is an improvement, but it does not mean inflationary pressure has fully subsided.
My take is that hotter-than-expected inflation can make markets worry about a tighter interest-rate path. Higher rates, in turn, raise borrowing costs and constrain risk appetite. In its report after the data release, CoinDesk noted that BTC extended its losses, but also pointed out that Treasury yields had already risen before the data came out. The entire day’s market action cannot be attributed to this CPI report, nor does it justify concluding that BTC is bound to fall.
There is also a limitation to the data: because October 2025 base-period data were unavailable, the BLS did not release year-over-year increases for most indexes this time. The 0.4% figure is a monthly increase, not the annual inflation rate; an “official year-over-year figure” should not be inferred.
Over the next two or three Treasury trading days, I’ll watch to see whether the two-year Treasury yield continues to rise and whether BTC can recover its losses after the data release. If yields fall, BTC recovers, and subsequent data confirm that inflation is cooling, I’ll reduce the weight I assign to macro pressure. If yields continue to climb and BTC remains under pressure, I’ll stay cautious and won’t treat a single rebound as a reversal.
#比特币 #CPI #MacroWatch
This drop in inflation is not enough to support the view that “the macro environment is starting to loosen.” For those watching BTC, it’s not enough to see that the increase was lower than last month’s; you also need to consider that it was higher than expected and how the bond market reacted.
The data released on November 10 was for the U.S. in October: seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, down from 0.6% in September but above the 0.3% forecast reported by CoinDesk. Prices rose a little more slowly, but they are still rising.
More noteworthy is core CPI, which excludes food and energy. It rose 0.3% month over month in each of August, September, and October, with no further slowdown. The smaller overall increase is an improvement, but it does not mean inflationary pressure has fully subsided.
My take is that hotter-than-expected inflation can make markets worry about a tighter interest-rate path. Higher rates, in turn, raise borrowing costs and constrain risk appetite. In its report after the data release, CoinDesk noted that BTC extended its losses, but also pointed out that Treasury yields had already risen before the data came out. The entire day’s market action cannot be attributed to this CPI report, nor does it justify concluding that BTC is bound to fall.
There is also a limitation to the data: because October 2025 base-period data were unavailable, the BLS did not release year-over-year increases for most indexes this time. The 0.4% figure is a monthly increase, not the annual inflation rate; an “official year-over-year figure” should not be inferred.
Over the next two or three Treasury trading days, I’ll watch to see whether the two-year Treasury yield continues to rise and whether BTC can recover its losses after the data release. If yields fall, BTC recovers, and subsequent data confirm that inflation is cooling, I’ll reduce the weight I assign to macro pressure. If yields continue to climb and BTC remains under pressure, I’ll stay cautious and won’t treat a single rebound as a reversal.
#比特币 #CPI #MacroWatch