Last night's CPI came in hot: October headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month (vs. 0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3% (vs. 0.2% expected). The BLS did not report year-over-year figures this time (CNBC).
After the data, CME FedWatch showed the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December falling from 98.6% to 84.7%, as the odds of a 50-basis-point hike rose from 1.4% to 15.3%. Before the data, Waller had said that if core CPI came in around 0.3%, a 50-basis-point hike would be worth discussing. Short-term rates were pushed higher as a result, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose about 14 basis points on the day (CoinDesk).
Binance spot is now $BTC , about $73,500, down 2.1% over 24 hours; $ETH is about $2,048, down 3.8%, falling more than BTC. With the rate path shifting from “25 basis points” to “maybe 50,” the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has moved up a notch. Prices are likely to keep tracking the 2-year yield over the next few days.
After the data, CME FedWatch showed the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December falling from 98.6% to 84.7%, as the odds of a 50-basis-point hike rose from 1.4% to 15.3%. Before the data, Waller had said that if core CPI came in around 0.3%, a 50-basis-point hike would be worth discussing. Short-term rates were pushed higher as a result, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose about 14 basis points on the day (CoinDesk).
Binance spot is now $BTC , about $73,500, down 2.1% over 24 hours; $ETH is about $2,048, down 3.8%, falling more than BTC. With the rate path shifting from “25 basis points” to “maybe 50,” the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has moved up a notch. Prices are likely to keep tracking the 2-year yield over the next few days.