$ARB: upward momentum amid a daily decline — pullback or trap?

The 15-minute rise looks weaker than the daily drop, so the question isn’t how strong the move is, but who is behind it. 15-minute volume is 0.8 of normal, while funding is −0.007%: buyers are more active, but there’s no confirmation from the flow.

Observation range · 5 h
Above 0.161800: Holding above the local upper boundary with rising volume would support the pullback scenario rather than a reversal.
Below 0.158200: A move back below the range’s lower boundary would give more weight to the daily trend and weaken the bounce hypothesis.
These are historical levels; a single wick does not confirm a scenario.

What would need to change in volume for this bounce to stop looking like noise against the backdrop of the daily decline?

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