1. Overnight markets in a nutshell
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time last night: headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above market expectations of around 0.3% but below September’s 0.6%; core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of around 0.2%. Year-over-year figures were not released because of the U.S. federal government shutdown in October 2025. As of around 8:55 a.m. Beijing time, Binance spot showed $BTC at around $73,600, down about 1.9% over 24 hours. The overnight range was roughly $72,700–$75,300—the low broke below the support near $74,100 mentioned in last night’s recap, and marked the first clear drop below $73,000 since late August, though prices later recovered somewhat. $ETH was around $2,051, down about 3.4%, with an intraday low near $2,006, notably weaker than Bitcoin; $BNB was around $680, down about 1.4%, relatively resilient among major coins. SOL was around $83.20 (down about 3.6%) and XRP around $1.05 (down about 4.1%), remaining weak. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 29, still in the “Fear” zone and slightly lower than yesterday’s 32.
II. What is the market pricing in: not “whether to hike,” but “how much”
Before the data was released, Fed Governor Waller said in London that he supported a December rate hike, even if inflation eased. If core CPI came in at or above 0.3%, he said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered; hiking by just 25 basis points could damage the Fed’s policy credibility. The data landed right on the threshold he had mentioned. Several public reports citing CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December rising to 80–90%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike rose from near zero to around 10%. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to around 5% during the session. For crypto markets, this means the idea that “some of the hotter-than-expected data was already priced in” has been partly disproven, with the focus shifting from “Will there be a rate hike?” to “Will the hike be more aggressive?”
III. Three key levels to watch in the early session
1) Around 72,700: The overnight low, and the first level to watch in determining whether this dip was just a brief wick.
2) Around 73,000–73,200: Near the round-number level. Some analysts have noted that around 73,200 is close to the 200-day moving average, making it a reference point for the short-term bull-bear divide.
3) Around 74,400–75,000: To show that selling pressure has been absorbed, the price needs to reclaim this area, which it fell below last night.
These are reference levels, not buy or sell signals.
IV. What to watch during the day
Overnight, the market has already worked through much of the “data release” event: first breaking lower, then recovering part of the decline. But $ETH remained relatively weaker, and altcoins fell further, showing that risk appetite has yet to recover. Liquidity is thin in the early Asian session, so when prices approach the overnight low, slippage and a retest can easily occur. The key things to watch during the day are whether the price revisits the 72,700 area and whether any rebound is accompanied by volume. Don’t automatically interpret one recovery as a trend reversal. Relevant trading pairs to watch: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, BNBUSDT.
What do you think?
1) After $BTC broke below 73,000 and then returned to around 73,600, do you see this as “support holding and the emotional sell-off ending,” or as “a break followed by a recovery, with another test of the lows still to come”?
2) Now that core CPI has reached the threshold Waller cited for discussing a 50-basis-point hike, do you think the market will price in “a rate hike is a done deal” more quickly, or keep trading on “the size of the hike”? Why?
Investing involves risk; make decisions with care. The above is for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.