Tonight I want to talk about a signal many people overlook—the true positions of large traders.
BTC is around $74,381, and ETH is at $2,103. On the surface, the market looks range-bound, but my system paints a different picture: the long/short ratio by large-trader accounts is 3.26, while the ratio by actual positions is only 2.36—a full 28% gap. This means large traders are talking bullish but quietly holding short positions. This is called “bullish on the surface, bearish in reality”—luring retail traders into chasing longs, then shorting to liquidate them.
ETH is even more extreme. The account ratio for large traders is 4.33, but the position ratio is only 1.95—a 55% gap. Historically, when this setup appears, the win rate for shorting ETH exceeds 85%. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s a structural positioning strategy.
The FVG magnet currently points to $75,130 for BTC and $2,122 for ETH. The liquidation walls above are at $75,803 and $2,142, respectively. The most likely next move by the major players is to sweep a wave of long stop-losses upward, then reverse and push down toward the liquidity pools at $72,831 (BTC) or $2,058 (ETH).
But the system says WAIT right now, so I WAIT. The Hurst value is 0.442 for BTC and 0.529 for ETH. The ranging regime isn’t over yet, and entering early just hands the major players more ammunition. Wait for the FVG touch and for the Taker ratio to drop below 0.5—that’s the real entry point.
Here’s what you should do now: don’t chase. Step back and wait until the structure is clear before acting. Those who rush to enter often end up adding their own names to the major players’ hunting list.
Follow me for a live stream and SMC lessons every night at 21:00
🌿 Zhao Without a Word | Not financial advice
BTC is around $74,381, and ETH is at $2,103. On the surface, the market looks range-bound, but my system paints a different picture: the long/short ratio by large-trader accounts is 3.26, while the ratio by actual positions is only 2.36—a full 28% gap. This means large traders are talking bullish but quietly holding short positions. This is called “bullish on the surface, bearish in reality”—luring retail traders into chasing longs, then shorting to liquidate them.
ETH is even more extreme. The account ratio for large traders is 4.33, but the position ratio is only 1.95—a 55% gap. Historically, when this setup appears, the win rate for shorting ETH exceeds 85%. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s a structural positioning strategy.
The FVG magnet currently points to $75,130 for BTC and $2,122 for ETH. The liquidation walls above are at $75,803 and $2,142, respectively. The most likely next move by the major players is to sweep a wave of long stop-losses upward, then reverse and push down toward the liquidity pools at $72,831 (BTC) or $2,058 (ETH).
But the system says WAIT right now, so I WAIT. The Hurst value is 0.442 for BTC and 0.529 for ETH. The ranging regime isn’t over yet, and entering early just hands the major players more ammunition. Wait for the FVG touch and for the Taker ratio to drop below 0.5—that’s the real entry point.
Here’s what you should do now: don’t chase. Step back and wait until the structure is clear before acting. Those who rush to enter often end up adding their own names to the major players’ hunting list.
Follow me for a live stream and SMC lessons every night at 21:00
🌿 Zhao Without a Word | Not financial advice