Bafang | BTC Morning Market Analysis 11.11
Data as of: Beijing time, 11.11 08:25
CPI came in hot, and last night’s hit finally landed.
U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Both came in a notch higher.
U.S. stocks closed lower: S&P 500 -0.38%, Nasdaq -0.74%, Dow -0.30%, and Nvidia fell another 5.5%.
CNBC cited CME FedWatch, which put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at around 90%.
$BTC Last night’s price action:
The data came out at 9 p.m., and the low hit 73,505.
In the first hour after U.S. stocks opened at 11 p.m., BTC initially surged to 74,843, then plunged straight to 72,858.
The low for the midnight hour was 72,727, the bottom for the night.
It then slowly climbed back, touching 74,061 at 5 a.m. It’s now at 73,612, down 2.06% over 24 hours.
📊 Daily chart
RSI is 32.5; the 4-hour RSI is 37.5.
An overnight wick broke below the MA200 (73,171) and the lower Bollinger Band (72,859), but price has since climbed back above both.
The EMA200 at 74,755 has now turned into overhead resistance.
AHR999 is 0.38, putting it a little deeper into undervalued territory.
👀 Sentiment
The long/short account ratio spiked to 3.19 at 11 p.m., then eased back to 3.05 by 8 a.m.
I’m not keen on the fact that people were still adding to longs as the price fell.
The funding rate is 0.01%, so things aren’t overheated.
$ETH Looking even worse: it hit a low of 2,005 overnight, nearly losing 2,000. It’s now at 2,051.77, still below the lower Bollinger Band at 2,058, with a daily RSI of 28.4.
$SOL 83.48, down 3.46% over 24 hours, with a daily RSI of 24.3.
🎯 Key levels today
Resistance: 74,061 / 74,755 (daily EMA200) / 74,843 (last night’s high)
Support: 73,171 (daily MA200) / 72,859 (lower Bollinger Band) / 72,727 (overnight low)
View: Bearish range-bound trading. With CPI now out, rate-hike expectations are basically locked in, and I don’t see anything in the near term that could push prices higher.
Bafang’s take: Today, I’ll first be watching to see whether the MA200 at 73,171 holds. If it does, price may chop around between 73,200 and 74,800; if it can’t reclaim 74,755, I’m not looking for a rebound. If 72,727 breaks, we’ll have to look lower for the next support.
Do you think BTC will hit 74,700 first today, or break below 72,700?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice.)
#BTC #CPI #MarketAnalysis
Data as of: Beijing time, 11.11 08:25
CPI came in hot, and last night’s hit finally landed.
U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Both came in a notch higher.
U.S. stocks closed lower: S&P 500 -0.38%, Nasdaq -0.74%, Dow -0.30%, and Nvidia fell another 5.5%.
CNBC cited CME FedWatch, which put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at around 90%.
$BTC Last night’s price action:
The data came out at 9 p.m., and the low hit 73,505.
In the first hour after U.S. stocks opened at 11 p.m., BTC initially surged to 74,843, then plunged straight to 72,858.
The low for the midnight hour was 72,727, the bottom for the night.
It then slowly climbed back, touching 74,061 at 5 a.m. It’s now at 73,612, down 2.06% over 24 hours.
📊 Daily chart
RSI is 32.5; the 4-hour RSI is 37.5.
An overnight wick broke below the MA200 (73,171) and the lower Bollinger Band (72,859), but price has since climbed back above both.
The EMA200 at 74,755 has now turned into overhead resistance.
AHR999 is 0.38, putting it a little deeper into undervalued territory.
👀 Sentiment
The long/short account ratio spiked to 3.19 at 11 p.m., then eased back to 3.05 by 8 a.m.
I’m not keen on the fact that people were still adding to longs as the price fell.
The funding rate is 0.01%, so things aren’t overheated.
$ETH Looking even worse: it hit a low of 2,005 overnight, nearly losing 2,000. It’s now at 2,051.77, still below the lower Bollinger Band at 2,058, with a daily RSI of 28.4.
$SOL 83.48, down 3.46% over 24 hours, with a daily RSI of 24.3.
🎯 Key levels today
Resistance: 74,061 / 74,755 (daily EMA200) / 74,843 (last night’s high)
Support: 73,171 (daily MA200) / 72,859 (lower Bollinger Band) / 72,727 (overnight low)
View: Bearish range-bound trading. With CPI now out, rate-hike expectations are basically locked in, and I don’t see anything in the near term that could push prices higher.
Bafang’s take: Today, I’ll first be watching to see whether the MA200 at 73,171 holds. If it does, price may chop around between 73,200 and 74,800; if it can’t reclaim 74,755, I’m not looking for a rebound. If 72,727 breaks, we’ll have to look lower for the next support.
Do you think BTC will hit 74,700 first today, or break below 72,700?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice.)
#BTC #CPI #MarketAnalysis