Bitcoin has been falling for twelve months straight

Key takeaway
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin fell 2.17% to a low of 72,727.27, a new low for this cycle.
Over the same period, ETH rose 1.74%, XRP rose 1.89%, SOL rose 1.64%, and BCH rose 1.16%.
It’s not just a one-day thing. Over a week, BTC fell 4.87%, ETH rose 5.54%, XRP rose 14.93%, and BCH rose 13.16%. Over a month, BTC fell 12.03%, DOT rose 30.38%, XLM rose 23.07%, and XRP rose 17.34%. Over a year, BTC fell 30.52%, DOT rose 167.84%, EOS rose 174.68%, and XRP rose 66.14%.
Stretch the window from one day to one year—across all four time frames, Bitcoin is in the red.
These figures determine how to read the market today. If you’re waiting for Bitcoin to catch up, first look at how long it’s already been falling. Its current price is 73,672, down 41.61% from its high of 126,080 on October 6, 2025.
Three Lines Reversed Overnight
The first was Iran. At this time yesterday, the market was pricing in a U.S.-Iran framework agreement, the proposed immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. unfreezing $6–9 billion in Iranian assets. Today, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Iran and the U.S. are not currently holding any negotiations, and called U.S. claims about continued talks and meetings in Qatar lies. The war premium that came out of the market yesterday has been priced back in today.
The second was the Fed. Logan said excessive inflation is unacceptable and that at least two more rate hikes are needed. Deutsche Bank expects three consecutive Fed rate hikes. Bowman said inflation remains to be brought under control. All point in the same direction: rate hikes, not cuts.
The third was AI. Nvidia’s intraday loss widened to 5%, IREN fell nearly 8%, and Neocloud, storage, and optical communications stocks broadly declined. Microsoft’s market cap surpassed Nvidia’s for the first time since June 2025.
Yesterday, all three stories pointed the other way. The framework agreement was advancing, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 7%, and AMD gained 12%. Overnight, all three reversed. Bitcoin’s response was a 2.17% decline. We’ll have to wait until tonight to see the full reaction in U.S. equities.
Yesterday’s Scenario Check
Yesterday’s invalidation level was a daily close below 73,724.3. The close was 73,796.06, 71.76 points above it, so the level held.
Of the three scenarios, Scenario 1 was the 40% case: rejection at 75,506–75,619, a retest of 74,280–74,769, then another move higher, making a third higher low since 73,510. Yesterday’s high was 75,442.01; price didn’t even touch 75,506 and headed straight down.
Scenario 3 was the 30% case: break below 73,724, then 73,510, with 72,000 as the downside target. Yesterday’s low was 72,727.27; both levels were broken intraday, with only the closing confirmation missing.
The direction followed the 30% scenario, and the path played out about 90% of the way—the closing confirmation was all that was missing.
Yesterday I wrote, “Only trade the first half of the day; price at 75,506–75,619.” Price never got there, so that trade shouldn’t have been opened. I also wrote, “Don’t open a swing position around 75,300,” which looks right today. And I wrote, “If you’re holding, use 73,724 rather than 73,510 as the exit reference.” There were still 997 points between 73,724 and the 72,727 low, so that level came in handy.
Technicals: The Compression Breaks to the Downside
Yesterday I said both ends of the range were moving inward, with an upper bound at 76,200 and a lower bound at 73,510, for a 2,690-point range. Today, the lower bound broke.
Highs fell for three consecutive days: 76,200, 75,599.22, and 75,442.01, a total decline of 758 points. Lows were 73,510, 73,750, and 72,727.27—first rising 240 points, then breaking lower by 1,023 points.
The last three weekly candles were -2.39%, -2.25%, and -4.47%. This week, price is down another 1.58% through today.
The daily price is now 73,672, with all three moving averages overhead. EMA200 is at 76,246.4, a gap of 2,574 points. EMA20 is at 77,402.8, a gap of 3,731 points. EMA50 is at 78,891.1, a gap of 5,219 points. That’s a distance of 3.38% to 6.62%.
EMA20 is already 1,488.3 points below EMA50, with the death cross now on its tenth day. The gap was 911.2 points on November 8, 1,225.3 points on November 10, and 1,488.3 points today.
RSI is 33.7. Weak, but not below 30. This reading shows selling pressure is continuing, not that selling is over. Below 30 is the kind of extreme you see in a one-off liquidation; we’re still a long way from there.
The daily MACD histogram is -387.1, with the last three readings at -335.6, -382.6, and -387.1. The absolute value of the histogram has increased three times in a row, indicating strengthening downside momentum.
Bollinger lower band 72,880.9, middle band 77,809.7, upper band 82,738.4, bandwidth 12.67%. The bandwidth is widening, not contracting. Price is 4,138 points below the middle band, at the 10.1% percentile of the 20-day range from 72,727.27 to 82,060.9. Daily ATR is 2,141.3, or 2.91% of the current price—that’s a normal one-day move.
The 4H price is also below all three moving averages: EMA20 at 74,753.8, a gap of 1,082 points; EMA50 at 76,009.9, a gap of 2,338 points; and EMA200 at 79,384, a gap of 5,712 points. But the 4H MACD histogram is -67.9, with the last three readings at -95.1, -79.8, and -67.9, narrowing three times in a row. RSI is 37.9, the Bollinger lower band is 73,049.1, and bandwidth is 4.87%.
The 1H price is 282 points below EMA20 at 73,953.5 and 802 points below EMA50 at 74,473.6. The MACD histogram is +22.8, with the last three readings at -6.5, 15, and 22.8. It turned positive, and the third reading is still expanding. RSI is 43.5, and Bollinger bandwidth is 3.07%.
Looking at all four timeframes together, the 1H is recovering, the 4H is contracting, and the daily is still expanding. The recovery on all three timeframes is only in the pace of the decline; none of their positions have changed.
Derivatives: Longs Aren’t Paying Anymore
Open interest is 99,545 contracts, with a notional value of 7.343 billion. At 8 a.m. yesterday, it was 98,579 contracts, a net increase of 966 contracts over 24 hours, or 0.98%. Over the same period, price fell 2.17%. Rising open interest alongside falling prices leans bearish.
The highest OI in this window was 100,966 contracts at midnight today. Over the next eight hours, it fell by 1,421 contracts to 99,545. Meanwhile, by 8 a.m. today, price had rebounded from its low of 72,727.27 to 73,796.06, putting it 1,069 points above the low. Falling OI near the lows, with price some distance off the bottom, looks more like shorts closing than new longs stepping in.
Notional value fell from 7.426 billion to 7.343 billion, a drop of 83 million. Don’t mistake this for a reduction in positions: notional value is calculated from price multiplied by positions, so it naturally falls when price falls. Use contract count to track positions.
The funding rate is 0.008241%, below the 0.01% base rate, so the premium is negative. Yesterday the rate was exactly 0.0001%, equal to the base rate; today it has slipped below it. On November 5, it was 0.0027%, even lower than today. Throughout this downturn, the rate has hovered around zero premium, pointing to the same thing: longs aren’t paying.
The move is small; don’t overstate it. 0.0082% is still positive, and it’s nowhere near the capitulation reading you’d see with a negative funding rate.
The share of retail accounts holding longs was 75.76% at midnight last night, 75.48% at 4 a.m., and is now 74.73%—three consecutive declines.
On November 5, this reading was washed out to 58.17%; BTC closed that day at 76,088. Since then, price has fallen another 2,416 points, while the share of long accounts has climbed back to 74%. The same people are buying more as price falls. Funding confirms they aren’t paying a premium, so they aren’t the ones being liquidated either. They were probably the buyers at yesterday’s 72,727 low.
Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the market totaled $636 million, mostly on longs. On November 9, $715 million was liquidated in a single hour; on October 30, $949 million over twelve hours. Today’s total is $636 million for the whole day, averaging $26.5 million an hour. Leverage is coming out gradually, not all at once.
Since this decline began on November 5, the highest daily trading volume was still that day’s 2.025 billion. The following days saw 1.304 billion, 396 million, 711 million, 1.172 billion, and 1.218 billion—none higher. Selling pressure hasn’t intensified. A decline on lower volume suggests nobody is in a hurry to sell, but also that nobody is in a hurry to buy.
Key Levels
The three levels below are packed into a 322-point range: the 4H Bollinger lower band at 73,049.1, the daily Bollinger lower band at 72,880.9, and the 20-day low at 72,727.27. The current price is 623 points above the highest of them, with no buffer in between. If the first level breaks, the next one to watch is the third.
Below that is the round-number level at 72,000, then 71,000, where cumulative long liquidation intensity across major exchanges is 602 million. There are no reference points below 72,727 in the 30-day window, so these two round-number levels are all there is.
The first overhead barrier is 73,933.97 to 73,994.6. The 24-hour weighted average price, the 1H EMA20 at 73,953.5, and the 1H Bollinger middle band at 73,994.6 are all clustered within 61 points. The current price is 262 to 323 points below them.
The second barrier is 74,473.6, the 1H EMA50. The third is 74,753.8, the 4H EMA20, which is 280 points above the 1H EMA50.
The fourth barrier is 76,009.9 to 76,246.4: the 4H EMA50 and the daily EMA200, a 237-point range, with the 4H 20-period high at 76,200 also overhead. This is the barrier that will answer the question. Until it’s cleared, every rebound is just a rebound.
Scenarios
Scenario 1, 40%. Price chops between 72,727 and 73,049, rebounds intraday to 73,933–73,994 and gets rejected, then closes between 73,000 and 73,800. Trigger: the 1H candle closes below 73,995, and OI does not continue to rise.
Scenario 2, 35%. Price breaks below 72,727 and the daily candle closes beneath it. The first stop is 72,000, followed by 71,000, where the 602 million in long liquidations starts to come into play. Trigger: the daily candle closes below 72,727.27 and OI rises at the same time.
Scenario 3, 25%. Price rebounds above 73,995 and posts two consecutive 4H closes above it, then tests 74,473–74,754. Trigger: a 4H close above 74,000 and funding returns to above 0.01%.
The three scenarios add up to 100%. The bearish bias comes from the daily MACD expanding for three consecutive readings, price being 3.38% to 6.62% below all three moving averages, and continued ETF outflows. The case against a deep decline is that the 4H and 1H are already recovering, Fear & Greed at 29 is not far from an extreme, and the dip to 72,727 was bought.
How to Trade
For intraday trades, focus only on the rebound. If price reaches 73,933–73,994 and the 1H candle closes with an upper wick while OI does not rise, this is an area to watch. Target zone: 73,049–72,881. Invalidation reference: a 1H close above 74,100.
Conversely, if the 4H candle closes directly above 74,000, the same area changes from resistance to a breakout zone. Target zone: 74,473–74,754. Invalidation reference: a 4H close back below 73,600.
For swing trades, don’t open a position around 73,600. Wait for one of two things: either a daily close below 72,727 to confirm the breakdown, or two consecutive 4H closes above 76,246.
If you’re already holding, watch 73,049 and use 72,881 as a reference for exiting. There are only 154 points between 72,881 and 72,727. If you wait for 72,727 to actually break before exiting, there’s no buffer in between. The November 8 candle, with a 2,690-point range, showed how price can wick below a level and then rebound.
To Bring Money Back, Three Numbers Need to Turn
First, ETFs. Net outflows were 201 million on November 9. ETFs are Bitcoin’s largest external funding channel; ETFs for other coins are nowhere near the same scale. For the flow to reverse, we need three consecutive days of net inflows. This is also the most testable assumption in today’s analysis: if ETFs aren’t the main driver, BTC won’t outperform on the day their flows turn positive.
Second, funding needs to rise above 0.01% and stay there for two settlement periods. It’s currently 0.0082%, below the base rate.
Third, the daily EMA200 at 76,246.4 needs to be reclaimed and held for three days.
We can talk about a catch-up rally when two of the three happen at the same time. Right now, none have.
Perspective
Down 41.61% from 126,080 on October 6, 2025. Down 30.52% over one year, 4.94% over 200 days, 4.64% over 60 days, 12.03% over 30 days, and 4.87% over 7 days. Bitcoin accounts for 59.75% of the total crypto market cap.
The one-year figure is the one to remember. Anyone who bought last November is now down 30%, while DOT is up 167.84% and EOS is up 174.68% over the same period. The money hasn’t left this market; for twelve months, it’s been moving elsewhere.
Risks
1. Funding at 0.0082% has only slipped below the base rate; it is still positive. Calling this a capitulation reading would be premature. True capitulation would mean negative funding, a 5% single-day OI wipeout, and Fear & Greed below 20. All three are still far off.
2. Iran’s denial is an official statement, but outsiders can’t see how much contact there has actually been between Iran and the U.S. Today’s statement may just be a negotiating move; tomorrow, the position could reverse again. A single day’s statement doesn’t establish a trend.
3. The two Fed officials spoke of “expectations” and “more needed,” not a decision. More data will come out before the December FOMC meeting, and Deutsche Bank’s “three consecutive hikes” is a forecast.
4. ETF data is current only through November 9, a two-day lag, so it can’t be used to judge today’s flow direction.
5. 72,727 has only been tested once, and 73,510 twice; the two levels are close together. A breakdown could produce a wick below the level followed by a rebound, so waiting for confirmation before exiting could mean taking extra slippage.