Last night at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released October’s CPI: headline inflation rose 0.4% month over month, and core inflation rose 0.3%. The estimates the market was comparing against before the release (surveys reported by the media, not forecasts from the Bureau itself) were 0.3% and 0.2%, so both figures came in noticeably higher.
【Bearish tilt】The moment the data came out, Bitcoin first surged to 74,770, then promptly got slammed down to 73,524.73; ETH hit 2,028.32. At the time, I was more concerned with whether those two lows would hold—and they didn’t. ETH touched 2,006 at 23:44 last night, and Bitcoin hit 72,727.27 at 00:37 today. I checked both figures against publicly available spot-market minute charts.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around 73,684 (down about 2.1% over 24 hours), and ETH is around 2,052 (down about 3.8% over 24 hours). They’ve recovered somewhat from their lows, but are still below the pre-release levels of around 74,410 / 2,098. Month-over-month inflation slowed from September’s +0.6%, but the market had been betting on a sharper cooldown. Core inflation has remained at 0.3% for three consecutive months: there has been some cooling, but not enough. That’s where the bearish tilt is coming from. For now, it’s too soon to say whether there will be another rate hike.
The Chen-hour reading gives the Thunder over Heaven hexagram, Great Strength, with the first yang line changing. Great Strength, put simply: there’s plenty of force, but it’s easy to overdo it. Heaven is below, still firm; Thunder is above, already in motion. The first line is just getting started, so the biggest risk is mistaking a brief rebound for a complete turnaround. I’m more inclined to watch two things first: whether 72,727 and 2,006 can hold, and whether the recovery so far will roll over again. Don’t interpret this Asian-session wick as proof that the trend is over.
Do you think the lows are already in and the recovery could present an opportunity, or do you think even 73,524 failed to hold and it’s worth staying cautious? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow me for updates.
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion, not investment advice
【Bearish tilt】The moment the data came out, Bitcoin first surged to 74,770, then promptly got slammed down to 73,524.73; ETH hit 2,028.32. At the time, I was more concerned with whether those two lows would hold—and they didn’t. ETH touched 2,006 at 23:44 last night, and Bitcoin hit 72,727.27 at 00:37 today. I checked both figures against publicly available spot-market minute charts.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around 73,684 (down about 2.1% over 24 hours), and ETH is around 2,052 (down about 3.8% over 24 hours). They’ve recovered somewhat from their lows, but are still below the pre-release levels of around 74,410 / 2,098. Month-over-month inflation slowed from September’s +0.6%, but the market had been betting on a sharper cooldown. Core inflation has remained at 0.3% for three consecutive months: there has been some cooling, but not enough. That’s where the bearish tilt is coming from. For now, it’s too soon to say whether there will be another rate hike.
The Chen-hour reading gives the Thunder over Heaven hexagram, Great Strength, with the first yang line changing. Great Strength, put simply: there’s plenty of force, but it’s easy to overdo it. Heaven is below, still firm; Thunder is above, already in motion. The first line is just getting started, so the biggest risk is mistaking a brief rebound for a complete turnaround. I’m more inclined to watch two things first: whether 72,727 and 2,006 can hold, and whether the recovery so far will roll over again. Don’t interpret this Asian-session wick as proof that the trend is over.
Do you think the lows are already in and the recovery could present an opportunity, or do you think even 73,524 failed to hold and it’s worth staying cautious? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow me for updates.
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion, not investment advice
