🥇 Morning Gold Brief | November 11
━━━━━━━━━━
📊 Key Readings
· COMEX Gold: $4,038.5/oz (-2.68%)
· Shanghai Gold Au99.99: 865.5 yuan/g (-2.29%)
· U.S. Dollar Index DXY: 102.23
· U.S. Treasury 10Y: 4.90% (20-day: -30 bp)
· Quasi-real interest rate (10Y−CPI): +1.20%
· Brent crude oil: $91.98
· Federal funds rate upper bound: 4.00%
· CPI YoY: 3.70% PPI: 6.34%
━━━━━━━━━━
🔍 Gold Price Drivers (Current)
· Cross-asset fund flows -49 (bearish)
· U.S. Treasury yield trend +45 (bullish)
· Policy pricing -42 (bearish)
· Oil price pass-through +39 (bullish)
· Safe-haven sentiment +21 (bullish)
━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 Market pricing for the next FOMC meeting
· Rate hike 96.2% / no change 3.5% / rate cut 0.6%
· Pricing as of: 2026-11-11
🏦 Central banks’ net gold purchases over the past 12 months: approx. +305 tonnes
📉 U.S. debt/GDP: 121.2%
😰 VIX: 19.5 ｜ SPDR Gold ETF holdings: 1,042.5 tonnes
💡 In a nutshell: Real interest rates (10Y−CPI) are the direct anchor for gold prices; current readings and FOMC pricing together determine the short-term direction
What’s your take on gold today? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
⚠️ Data compiled from public sources; this is not investment advice