JPMorgan strategists said the front end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve appeared “fairly priced” after Tuesday’s sharp selloff, but a broader shift toward hawkishness among Fed officials could trigger a more severe bond selloff and flatten the curve.
According to Sina Finance, a team led by global rates strategy head Jay Barry made the assessment after remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, noting that two committee members who did not dissent at the September meeting had notably changed their tone.
The strategists said that if this language spread to other Federal Open Market Committee members, it would mark a sharp shift in the Fed’s reaction function—from a growth-focused, inflation-tolerant “New Testament” approach to an “Old Testament” group willing to tighten policy fast enough to lower inflation through slower growth and a loosening labor market. They said this could point to a pronounced bear flattening, similar to mid-2022.
The team, which also included Jason Hunter, Harry Downie and Amanda Berke, wrote that the officials’ remarks raised questions about why more members had not dissented at the October meeting. Minutes due next Wednesday have become more important for assessing the policy debate and the FOMC’s reaction function.
