U.S. October CPI is out: Core CPI was unchanged month over month at 0.3%. Did you guess right last night?
In last night's 8:30 p.m. post, we asked everyone to guess the direction of core CPI month over month. The answer: unchanged. According to the report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time last night, seasonally adjusted core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month—the same as in September and August, marking three consecutive months at the same figure.
A few more numbers:
1. Overall seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, compared with 0.6% in September, so the increase slowed.
2. Shelter rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase.
3. Energy rose 0.7%, far less than September's 5.2%; food rose 0.5%.
This report is also missing one number everyone loves to watch: the year-over-year figure. The reason is that the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 meant the BLS did not collect survey data that month, so year-over-year figures for most categories over the 12 months through this October cannot be published. If you see “October CPI was up X% year over year,” first ask where that figure came from.
A blunt take: three consecutive months at 0.3% for core CPI means inflation is neither accelerating nor clearly cooling. Using an “unchanged” reading to tell a story of a major rise or drop is overdoing it.
Next CPI release: December 10 (U.S. Eastern Time).
Do you think “unchanged” is good news or bad news for the crypto market?
#CPI #美国通胀 #Macro
In last night's 8:30 p.m. post, we asked everyone to guess the direction of core CPI month over month. The answer: unchanged. According to the report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time last night, seasonally adjusted core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month—the same as in September and August, marking three consecutive months at the same figure.
A few more numbers:
1. Overall seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, compared with 0.6% in September, so the increase slowed.
2. Shelter rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase.
3. Energy rose 0.7%, far less than September's 5.2%; food rose 0.5%.
This report is also missing one number everyone loves to watch: the year-over-year figure. The reason is that the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 meant the BLS did not collect survey data that month, so year-over-year figures for most categories over the 12 months through this October cannot be published. If you see “October CPI was up X% year over year,” first ask where that figure came from.
A blunt take: three consecutive months at 0.3% for core CPI means inflation is neither accelerating nor clearly cooling. Using an “unchanged” reading to tell a story of a major rise or drop is overdoing it.
Next CPI release: December 10 (U.S. Eastern Time).
Do you think “unchanged” is good news or bad news for the crypto market?
#CPI #美国通胀 #Macro
