Tonight’s CPI: the Fed drew the line itself, then crossed it.
Last week, Waller said core CPI at 0.3% or higher could mean a 50 bp hike in December. Tonight, core came in at exactly 0.3%, and headline at 0.4%—both above expectations. The threshold was hit squarely, and the door to a 50 bp hike is now open.
The details sting even more: food +0.5%, energy +0.7%, gasoline +1.0% for the month, and shelter +0.3%. This isn’t one trouble spot—it’s spreading across the board. The WSJ’s Timiraos put it plainly: in December, the Fed either hikes 50 bp in one go, or hikes at both the December and January meetings. CME pricing puts the odds of a December hike at 100%. The only question left is how many hikes.
The dark humor: Brent crude fell below $90 today, yet gasoline in the CPI rose 1%—there’s a lag in the bills, so this month’s oil-price crash won’t show up in the data until next month. This year’s three inflation drivers: war, tariffs, and electricity costs from AI data centers. AI burns through money and fuels inflation; rate hikes drain liquidity. Crypto gets hit from both sides.
$BTC is stuck at 73,700, gold is down 2%, and the dollar and Treasuries are both up. When a rate hike is already a done deal, there’s no suspense—positioning is worth more than opinions.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #CPI #美联储 #加息 #cryptocurrency
Last week, Waller said core CPI at 0.3% or higher could mean a 50 bp hike in December. Tonight, core came in at exactly 0.3%, and headline at 0.4%—both above expectations. The threshold was hit squarely, and the door to a 50 bp hike is now open.
The details sting even more: food +0.5%, energy +0.7%, gasoline +1.0% for the month, and shelter +0.3%. This isn’t one trouble spot—it’s spreading across the board. The WSJ’s Timiraos put it plainly: in December, the Fed either hikes 50 bp in one go, or hikes at both the December and January meetings. CME pricing puts the odds of a December hike at 100%. The only question left is how many hikes.
The dark humor: Brent crude fell below $90 today, yet gasoline in the CPI rose 1%—there’s a lag in the bills, so this month’s oil-price crash won’t show up in the data until next month. This year’s three inflation drivers: war, tariffs, and electricity costs from AI data centers. AI burns through money and fuels inflation; rate hikes drain liquidity. Crypto gets hit from both sides.
$BTC is stuck at 73,700, gold is down 2%, and the dollar and Treasuries are both up. When a rate hike is already a done deal, there’s no suspense—positioning is worth more than opinions.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #CPI #美联储 #加息 #cryptocurrency