$BTC CPI came in hotter than expected, and the 200-day moving average is being tested: The takeaway first—wicks don't count as a break; the close is what matters
CPI: October headline inflation rose 0.4% month over month (0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% expected). The 0.3% core reading landed right on the threshold Waller cited for "considering a 50 bp hike." The probability of a 25 bp hike in December rose from 80% to 85%, while tail bets on a 50 bp hike also emerged, climbing above 12%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 19 bp to 4.74%, and the 10-year yield touched 5.02%.
Five minutes after the data was released, $BTC plunged from 74,300 to 73,600, wiping out about $200 million in longs in five minutes. Across the market, $356 million was liquidated in 24 hours, affecting 80,900 traders. The intraday low was 72,727; the 200-day moving average at 73,163 was pierced intraday. The current price is 73,380, still hovering around the moving average.
What the bulls are saying: James Check of Checkonchain believes 72,000–75,000 is the deepest zone this correction can reach while still playing out healthily. Daan Crypto Trades sees 72,000–75,000 as key support and is waiting for a higher low to form there. X user @BsBsc thinks a hotter-than-expected reading doesn't necessarily mean fresh panic—it could be "known bad news"—and is watching to see whether 72,500–73,500 can be reclaimed on strong volume.
What the bears are saying: IG's Axel Rudolph warns that if the daily close fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average (around 73,150) for two days, another wave of selling could follow, with the next level to watch around the April low near 70,500. BRN is more direct: a daily close below 73,000 could prompt momentum traders to push the price toward 70,000.
My take: Only look toward 70,000 if 73,163 fails to hold on the close; an intraday wick doesn't count, so don't trade before the close. Until price reclaims 75,000–75,500, treat any bounce as a relief rally. $ETH has also broken below 2,050; don't rush to buy coins that are falling in tandem until $BTC has stabilized.
CPI: October headline inflation rose 0.4% month over month (0.3% expected), while core CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% expected). The 0.3% core reading landed right on the threshold Waller cited for "considering a 50 bp hike." The probability of a 25 bp hike in December rose from 80% to 85%, while tail bets on a 50 bp hike also emerged, climbing above 12%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 19 bp to 4.74%, and the 10-year yield touched 5.02%.
Five minutes after the data was released, $BTC plunged from 74,300 to 73,600, wiping out about $200 million in longs in five minutes. Across the market, $356 million was liquidated in 24 hours, affecting 80,900 traders. The intraday low was 72,727; the 200-day moving average at 73,163 was pierced intraday. The current price is 73,380, still hovering around the moving average.
What the bulls are saying: James Check of Checkonchain believes 72,000–75,000 is the deepest zone this correction can reach while still playing out healthily. Daan Crypto Trades sees 72,000–75,000 as key support and is waiting for a higher low to form there. X user @BsBsc thinks a hotter-than-expected reading doesn't necessarily mean fresh panic—it could be "known bad news"—and is watching to see whether 72,500–73,500 can be reclaimed on strong volume.
What the bears are saying: IG's Axel Rudolph warns that if the daily close fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average (around 73,150) for two days, another wave of selling could follow, with the next level to watch around the April low near 70,500. BRN is more direct: a daily close below 73,000 could prompt momentum traders to push the price toward 70,000.
My take: Only look toward 70,000 if 73,163 fails to hold on the close; an intraday wick doesn't count, so don't trade before the close. Until price reclaims 75,000–75,500, treat any bounce as a relief rally. $ETH has also broken below 2,050; don't rush to buy coins that are falling in tandem until $BTC has stabilized.