I wanted to see how far the price could move up or down from the open each day, so I pulled the Binance STRAXUSDT daily candles. Based on UTC closes, the 90 most recent fully closed daily candles run from August 12 to November 9; the November 10 candle is still in progress and isn’t included. For the daily gains and losses mentioned below, I’ll look at both the day’s open-to-close change and the previous close-to-current close change. The upside move is how much the day’s high exceeded its open; the downside move is how much the day’s low fell below its open. Both are measured from that day’s open, not the previous close. To see which side had the larger move, I compare only these two figures.

Over 90 days, $STRAX went from an opening price of 0.00859 on August 12 to a closing price of 0.00902 on November 9, up 5.01%. Over the same period, $BTC rose 18.50%, and $ETH rose 13.42%. These 90 days had 45 bullish candles and 45 bearish candles, with no candles that opened and closed at the same price. On August 12, the price fell 3.03% from open to close, finishing at 0.00833; from that close to November 9, it rose 8.28%.

The low was 0.00806 on August 14, and the high was 0.0133 on September 13, 30 days later. The price rose 65.01% from the low to the high; from the August 12 opening price to the high, it rose 54.83%. The November 9 close was 32.18% below the high, so it would need to rise 47.45% to return to that level; it was 11.91% above the low. The highest closing price was on September 14, at 0.0125; that day's high also reached 0.0133. The current price is 27.84% below that close, and would need to rise 38.58% to get back to it.

Averaging the daily upward and downward excursions across these 90 days: the average upward excursion was 5.26%, and the average downward excursion was 2.55%. The upward excursion was 2.06 times the downward one, a difference of 2.71 percentage points. The medians also show larger upward excursions: 2.78% versus 1.89%. Across the 90 days, the upward excursion was greater on 55 days, the downward excursion was greater on 35 days, and neither side was equal on any day. Over the same period, $BTC had an average upward excursion of 1.55% and a downward excursion of 1.35%, a smaller difference, with larger upward excursions on 47 days; $ETH averaged 2.08% upward and 1.93% downward, with larger upward excursions on 46 days.

The side on which the close falls relative to the open does not always match the side with the larger excursion. Over these 90 days, the closing direction matched the side with the larger excursion on 68 days and went the other way on 22 days; there were no days with the same open and close. Even when the close moved in the direction of the larger excursion, it did not necessarily cover the whole distance: on average, the close retained only 51.02% of that side's move.

There is another, more striking pattern: days when the upward excursion was at least twice the downward excursion, yet the close was still below the open. There were 7 such days. There were no days with the reverse pattern—when the downward excursion was at least twice the upward excursion, yet the close was above the open. On August 12, the open was 0.00859, the high was 0.00995 (an upward excursion of 15.83%), the low was 0.00829 (a downward excursion of 3.49%), and the close was 0.00833, down 3.03% from the open. On September 10, the open was 0.0101, the high was 0.012 (an upward excursion of 18.81%), the low was 0.0095 (a downward excursion of 5.94%), and the close was 0.00958, down 5.15% from the open. October 12 was closer to the 90-day high: the open was 0.01108, and the high was 0.01328, just 0.00002 below 0.0133. The upward excursion was 19.86%, the low was 0.0108, the downward excursion was 2.53%, and the close was 0.01082, down 2.35% from the open. The following day after each of these 7 days also fell within the 90-day period. On those following days, the average open-to-close gain was 0.84%; 4 closed up and 3 closed down.

Dividing the 90 days into three periods: from August 12 to September 10, the price rose 11.53% from open to close. The average upward excursion was 5.20%, and the downward excursion was 2.14%; the upward excursion was greater on 21 days and the downward excursion on 9 days. There were 3 days when the upward excursion was at least twice the downward excursion, yet the candle closed down. From September 11 to October 10, the price rose 14.93%; the average upward excursion was 5.18% and the downward excursion was 2.79%, with larger upward excursions on 18 days and larger downward excursions on 12 days. There was 1 day with that pattern. From October 11 to November 9, the price fell 18.15%. The average upward excursion was still 5.40%, compared with 2.71% downward; the upward excursion was greater on 16 days and the downward excursion on 14 days. But the number of days when the closing direction went against the side with the larger excursion rose to 12, and there were 3 more days when the upward excursion was at least twice the downward excursion, yet the candle closed down. Over the most recent 14 days (October 27 to November 9), the price fell 14.74% from open to close. The average upward excursion was 2.61%, now below the average downward excursion of 3.03%; the upward excursion was greater on just 6 days. Over the most recent 7 days (November 3 to November 9), the price fell 11.91%, with an average upward excursion of 2.32% and a downward excursion of 3.92%; the upward excursion was greater on just 2 days. Average daily trading volume over these 90 days was about 523,600 USDT, compared with about 235,300 over the most recent 7 days.

These figures only show that over these 90 days, $STRAX had an average daily upward excursion from the open that was 2.06 times the downward excursion, and the upward excursion was greater on 55 days. Yet there were 45 bullish candles and 45 bearish candles, the price rose only 5.01% from open to close, and the close was still 32.18% below the high of 0.0133. Over the most recent 14 days, the average downward excursion has already exceeded the upward excursion. These figures cannot tell you whether 0.00902 will return to 0.0133, or whether the close will continue to hold the side that had the larger excursion. This is a measure of the price range on either side after the open over these 90 days, not a prediction of future price movements.

When you look at a price trend like $STRAX , where the average upward excursion is 2.06 times the downward one but the price rose only 5.01% over the whole period, would you pay more attention to the 55 days with larger upward excursions, or first look at the 7 days when the price surged higher but still closed below the open?