I wanted to see where the price ended up within the 90 days of trading after this rally, so I pulled up the Binance PHAUSDT daily candlesticks. Using UTC closes, the latest 90 completed daily candles run from August 12 to November 9; the November 10 candle is still in progress, so it’s excluded. For the daily gains and losses mentioned below, I’ll use both the day’s open-to-close change and the change from the previous close to that day’s close. The average traded price is a single figure calculated by weighting each day’s typical price (the average of the high, low, and close) by that day’s trading volume, then dividing by the total volume over the 90 days. The high-volume days later in the period also push this average up, so it isn’t a moving average you could have seen intraday; it’s only used to measure the price levels where trading was concentrated over these 90 days. Whether a close is above or below the average, it’s being compared with this figure calculated after the fact.
Over 90 days, $PHA rose 52.89%, from an opening price of 0.0225 on August 12 to a closing price of 0.0344 on November 9. Over the same period, $BTC rose 18.50%, and $ETH rose 13.42%. There were 40 up days and 50 down days during these 90 days, with no days when the opening and closing prices were the same. On August 12, the price fell 3.11% from open to close, ending at 0.0218; measured from that close, it rose 57.80% by November 9.
The low was 0.0211 on August 18, and the high was 0.1007 on September 25, 38 days later. The price rose 377.25% from the low to the high; measured from the August 12 opening price to the high, it rose 347.56%. The November 9 close was 65.84% below the high; it would need to rise 192.73% to return to that level. It was 63.03% above the low. September 25 was also the day with the highest close in these 90 days, at 0.0867; the current price is 60.32% below that close and would need to rise 152.03% to return to it. Since that day, no close has exceeded 0.0867. The highest price in the interim was 0.0908 on September 26, still 9.83% below 0.1007.
The average trading price over these 90 days was 0.05273. The November 9 close of 0.0344 was 34.77% below that level; it would need to rise 53.30% to return to the average. Over the 90 days, the closing price was above the average on 25 days and below it on 65 days, with no days closing exactly at the average. The price has now closed below the average for 17 consecutive days, a streak that began on October 24. This is not the longest such streak: from August 12 to September 24, it closed below the average for 44 consecutive days.
The 25 days above the average did not begin until September 25. For the 44 days before then, every close was below the average. On September 25, the price opened at 0.051, reached a high of 0.1007, fell to a low of 0.0494, and closed at 0.0867. It rose 70.00% from open to close and also gained 70.00% compared with the previous close; the close was 64.41% above the average. Trading volume that day was 35.7253 million, accounting for 12.09% of the total over these 90 days. From that day onward, the close stayed above the average for 19 consecutive days, through October 13—the longest such streak in these 90 days.
After that, the price crossed back and forth over the average several times. On October 14, it closed at 0.0506, falling below the average; on October 16, it closed at 0.0533, just 1.07% above the average, then closed below it again the next day, October 17. It moved above the average again on October 19, closing at 0.0622, or 17.95% above the average. This stretch lasted only until October 23: that day, the price opened at 0.0614, reached a high of 0.069, and closed at 0.0535, down 12.87% from open to close. The close was just 1.45% above the average. On October 24, it opened at 0.0536 and closed at 0.0484, down 9.53% from the previous close, dropping back below the average to 8.22% under it. From the October 23 close to November 9, it fell another 35.70%. Across the full 90 days, the close crossed from one side of the average to the other 6 times. It closed above the average for 3 consecutive stretches, lasting 19 days, 1 day, and 5 days, respectively.
Trading volume was concentrated mainly on days when the close was above the average. Those 25 days accounted for 59.96% of the total trading volume over the 90 days, while the other 65 days accounted for just 40.04%. The 5 days with the highest trading volume made up 36.07% of the total, and on 4 of those days the close was above the average. The sole exception was September 21, when trading volume was 27.7944 million, or 9.41% of the total. The price rose 31.56% from open to close that day, closing at 0.0496—still 5.94% below the average calculated later.
Divide the 90 days into three periods. From August 12 to September 10, the price rose 16.89% from open to close; all 30 daily closes were below the average, and trading volume accounted for just 8.36% of the total. From September 11 to October 10, it rose 127.65%; 16 days were above the average and 14 were below, and trading volume accounted for 62.39% of the total. From October 11 to November 9, it fell 42.76%; 9 days were above the average and 21 below, and trading volume accounted for 29.25% of the total. Over the most recent 14 days, from October 27 to November 9, the price fell 31.47% from open to close; over the most recent 7 days, from November 3 to November 9, it fell 11.79%. In both periods, the closes remained below the average. The average daily trading volume over these 90 days was about 3.2833 million USDT, compared with about 744,100 over the most recent 7 days.
These figures show only that over these 90 days, $PHA despite rising 52.89% from the opening price, the current close of 0.0344 is still 34.77% below the average price of 0.05273 implied by the trading volume over this period. The 25 days above the average accounted for 59.96% of the trading volume, but since October 24, the price has closed below this average for 17 consecutive days. These figures cannot tell you whether 0.0344 will return to 0.05273, or whether 0.1007 still matters. This is a measure of where trading took place over these 90 days, not a prediction of future price movements.
When you look at $PHA a trend that has risen 52.89% from the opening price but whose close is still 34.77% below the average trading price, would you pay more attention to the volume accumulated over those 25 days, or first look at the fact that the price has remained below the average for 17 consecutive days?