The Pentagon had just wrapped up its victory celebration when another tanker blew up in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. defense secretary personally announced the results of “Epic Fury”: 13,000 targets hit in 40 days; Iran’s navy sunk, its air force grounded, and 80% of its nuclear-industrial facilities wiped out. The boldest claim: “We control the Strait of Hormuz.”
Just a few hours later, the IRGC intercepted two tankers in the strait, and a supertanker hit a mine and caught fire. The Houthis opened fire at the same time, bombing Riyadh airport and pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline. Is this control made of paper?
Even more surreal is the market: Brent still fell below $90, hitting its lowest level since late August, simply because Trump said there was “no need to act for now” and that he wanted to leave room for negotiations. Missiles are flying overhead, premiums are dropping on the ground—the market is trading on talk of peace, while tankers operate in the physical world.
No one in crypto has it any better: after scorching CPI data, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a December rate hike (87.3% for 25 bps + 12.7% for an outright 50 bps hike). BTC is languishing at 73,700, well below the average cost of 82,300 for U.S. ETF investors. Gold is also down more than 2%; the dollar is the only thing rising.
The war narrative says it’ll be over soon; the rate-hike bill says it’s about to arrive. Crypto is being hit from both sides. Until it can reclaim 82,300, treat every rebound as a blip. Positioning is worth more than opinions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #原油 #霍尔木兹 #美伊谈判 #Federal Reserve
NFA DYOR
The U.S. defense secretary personally announced the results of “Epic Fury”: 13,000 targets hit in 40 days; Iran’s navy sunk, its air force grounded, and 80% of its nuclear-industrial facilities wiped out. The boldest claim: “We control the Strait of Hormuz.”
Just a few hours later, the IRGC intercepted two tankers in the strait, and a supertanker hit a mine and caught fire. The Houthis opened fire at the same time, bombing Riyadh airport and pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline. Is this control made of paper?
Even more surreal is the market: Brent still fell below $90, hitting its lowest level since late August, simply because Trump said there was “no need to act for now” and that he wanted to leave room for negotiations. Missiles are flying overhead, premiums are dropping on the ground—the market is trading on talk of peace, while tankers operate in the physical world.
No one in crypto has it any better: after scorching CPI data, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a December rate hike (87.3% for 25 bps + 12.7% for an outright 50 bps hike). BTC is languishing at 73,700, well below the average cost of 82,300 for U.S. ETF investors. Gold is also down more than 2%; the dollar is the only thing rising.
The war narrative says it’ll be over soon; the rate-hike bill says it’s about to arrive. Crypto is being hit from both sides. Until it can reclaim 82,300, treat every rebound as a blip. Positioning is worth more than opinions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #原油 #霍尔木兹 #美伊谈判 #Federal Reserve
NFA DYOR