BTC has closed lower for five consecutive weeks | This week’s candle is still open | I’m watching to see whether 74,850 can be reclaimed
My stance is defensive, but I’m not treating the number of down weeks as a prophecy that the sixth week must also fall. Binance Square is discussing #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses, so I checked each weekly BTCUSDT candle on Binance: the five completed weekly candles starting October 5, 12, 19, and 26, and November 2, all closed below their respective opens. The weekly candle that started November 9 is still in progress. At the time of writing, BTC was around $73,510, so it’s too early to call this “six consecutive weeks of declines.” Five down weeks indicate pressure on the longer-term trend, and a rebound needs confirmation on a higher timeframe; weekly candles also can’t identify the source of selling.
The fund-flow data offers figures that can be verified, but shouldn’t be mechanically extrapolated. Farside’s data for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shows net outflows of about $430 million, $412 million, and $201 million on November 5, 6, and 9, respectively. The entries for each fund on the November 10 table are still blank; the automatic total of 0.0 does not mean zero flows have been confirmed. Strategy’s website ledger and its November 9 filing disclose that it purchased 1,036 BTC last week. This shows that corporate buying and ETF redemptions can happen at the same time: one corporate purchase can’t offset the entire market’s outflows, and Saylor’s personal hints shouldn’t be treated as a new disclosure. My view is that corporate buying is present, but until fund outflows are confirmed to have reversed, prices still need to prove there’s support in the short term.
On the macro front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%. Due to missing data for October 2025, most year-over-year figures are unavailable. At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%; its December decision has not yet been announced. The trending topic #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced reflects market expectations, not a decision already made by the central bank. Higher rate expectations usually compress risk-asset valuations and available leverage, but every BTC price move is also affected by spot market depth, ETF flows, and derivatives positioning. It’s unwise to use a single macro data point to explain the entire market.
The price action is more specific now: BTCUSDT on Binance hit a low of $72,727.27 last night, then recovered to around $73,510. The previous completed weekly candle closed at $74,851.44, and this week’s price remains below that level. I see around $72,700 as the immediate line of defense, and $74,850 as the test of whether a rebound can reclaim last week’s close. Beyond that, I’m watching around $76,500 and $78,350. If price repeatedly fails to break through $74,850, the five-week weakness remains intact. If it reclaims that level and then falls back below $72,700, the rebound thesis is invalidated. Conversely, if it holds steadily above $74,850 and subsequent end-of-day ETF data stops deteriorating, I’ll become less defensive.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t enter now; I’d only consider a spot long. I’d wait for two consecutive completed 15-minute candles to close above $74,850, then wait for a retest that holds near $74,600. Only then would I enter in two tranches, using no more than 3% of my total capital. My first target would be $76,500, where I’d take half off; the second would be $78,350, where I’d reduce the position to a small watch position. I’d set the initial stop below $72,650. If price quickly falls back below $74,600 after entry and continues weakening, I’d exit early. If $72,700 is decisively broken first, I’d cancel the plan. I wouldn’t chase a direct move past the targets without a retest. I’d cap the loss on any single trade at 0.25% of total capital, avoid high leverage, and treat waiting as part of the discipline.
#BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is defensive, but I’m not treating the number of down weeks as a prophecy that the sixth week must also fall. Binance Square is discussing #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses, so I checked each weekly BTCUSDT candle on Binance: the five completed weekly candles starting October 5, 12, 19, and 26, and November 2, all closed below their respective opens. The weekly candle that started November 9 is still in progress. At the time of writing, BTC was around $73,510, so it’s too early to call this “six consecutive weeks of declines.” Five down weeks indicate pressure on the longer-term trend, and a rebound needs confirmation on a higher timeframe; weekly candles also can’t identify the source of selling.
The fund-flow data offers figures that can be verified, but shouldn’t be mechanically extrapolated. Farside’s data for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shows net outflows of about $430 million, $412 million, and $201 million on November 5, 6, and 9, respectively. The entries for each fund on the November 10 table are still blank; the automatic total of 0.0 does not mean zero flows have been confirmed. Strategy’s website ledger and its November 9 filing disclose that it purchased 1,036 BTC last week. This shows that corporate buying and ETF redemptions can happen at the same time: one corporate purchase can’t offset the entire market’s outflows, and Saylor’s personal hints shouldn’t be treated as a new disclosure. My view is that corporate buying is present, but until fund outflows are confirmed to have reversed, prices still need to prove there’s support in the short term.
On the macro front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%. Due to missing data for October 2025, most year-over-year figures are unavailable. At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%; its December decision has not yet been announced. The trending topic #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced reflects market expectations, not a decision already made by the central bank. Higher rate expectations usually compress risk-asset valuations and available leverage, but every BTC price move is also affected by spot market depth, ETF flows, and derivatives positioning. It’s unwise to use a single macro data point to explain the entire market.
The price action is more specific now: BTCUSDT on Binance hit a low of $72,727.27 last night, then recovered to around $73,510. The previous completed weekly candle closed at $74,851.44, and this week’s price remains below that level. I see around $72,700 as the immediate line of defense, and $74,850 as the test of whether a rebound can reclaim last week’s close. Beyond that, I’m watching around $76,500 and $78,350. If price repeatedly fails to break through $74,850, the five-week weakness remains intact. If it reclaims that level and then falls back below $72,700, the rebound thesis is invalidated. Conversely, if it holds steadily above $74,850 and subsequent end-of-day ETF data stops deteriorating, I’ll become less defensive.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t enter now; I’d only consider a spot long. I’d wait for two consecutive completed 15-minute candles to close above $74,850, then wait for a retest that holds near $74,600. Only then would I enter in two tranches, using no more than 3% of my total capital. My first target would be $76,500, where I’d take half off; the second would be $78,350, where I’d reduce the position to a small watch position. I’d set the initial stop below $72,650. If price quickly falls back below $74,600 after entry and continues weakening, I’d exit early. If $72,700 is decisively broken first, I’d cancel the plan. I wouldn’t chase a direct move past the targets without a retest. I’d cap the loss on any single trade at 0.25% of total capital, avoid high leverage, and treat waiting as part of the discipline.
#BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
