I wanted to see whether the price would recover after the $TUT big drop, so I pulled up the Binance TUTUSDT daily chart. Based on UTC closes, the latest 90 completed daily candles run from August 12 to November 9; the November 10 candle is still in progress and is excluded. The daily gains and losses mentioned below are measured mainly from the previous close to that day's close; open-to-close figures are specified separately. A big red candle means a day with a decline of at least 5% relative to the previous close. The 1-day and 5-day returns afterward are calculated by dividing the close on the respective later day by the close on the day of the big red candle. A recovery means that a later day's close returns to or exceeds the closing price from the day before the big red candle.

Over 90 days, $TUT went from an opening price of 0.07657 on August 12 to a closing price of 0.01729 on November 9, a decline of 77.42%. Over the same period, $BTC rose 18.50%, and $ETH rose 13.42%. There were 37 bullish candles and 53 bearish candles during these 90 days, with no candles that opened and closed at the same price. On August 12, the price fell 12.42% from open to close, ending at 0.06706. From that closing price to November 9, it fell 74.22%.

The highest price occurred on the first day of the window: on August 12, it surged to 0.08787, but closed that day at 0.06706, down 12.40% from the previous close of 0.07655. The lowest price was 0.01544 on September 9, 28 days after the high. The price fell 82.43% from its high to its low. The November 9 close was 80.32% below the high, meaning it would need to rise 408.21% to return to that level; it was only 11.98% above the low.

Among these completed daily candles, 21 had a decline of at least 5% relative to the previous close, falling by an average of 12.89% each. On all 21 of these days, $TUT fell more than $BTC for the day: on 8 days, $BTC actually closed higher, while on the other 13 days, $BTC also fell, but by a smaller amount. Average trading value on these 21 days was 18.8345 million, compared with 8.2648 million on the other 69 days, 127.89% higher.

There was no wave of rebounds after the big down candles. On the day after the 21 candles, the price fell by an average of 3.37%, rising 9 times and falling 12 times. For the 20 candles with a full 5-day follow-up, the price fell by an average of 3.61% over the next 5 days, with a median decline of 5.93%; only 6 of the 20 rose, while 14 fell. In 6 of those 20 cases, the price recovered to the pre-drop closing price at some point within 5 days, but by the close of day 5, it was still above that level in only 2 cases. Over the entire window, only 7 of the 21 drops were ever recovered, with a median recovery time of 3 days. At the November 9 close of 0.01729, the pre-drop closing price for all 21 cases was still above the current price.

The steepest drop was on August 13: the previous close was 0.06706, the open was 0.06707, the low was 0.03411, and the close was 0.03537—a 47.26% decline from the previous close. That day, $BTC edged up 0.02%. The price never returned to 0.06706 afterward; its highest subsequent close was 0.06359 on August 23, still 5.17% below the pre-drop close. August 19 followed a different pattern: $TUT fell 20.17%, while $BTC rose 7.12% and $ETH rose 17.46%. Three days later, on August 22, it closed at 0.06087, up 86.60% from the August 19 close of 0.03262, recovering the pre-drop closing price of 0.04086. But that rally did not hold, and the November 9 close was still 0.01729.

Of the 21 candles, 10 occurred individually, while 5 formed runs of two or more consecutive days; the longest run lasted 3 days. The first 30 days (August 12 to September 10) accounted for 13 candles, and the price fell 73.36% from open to close over that period. There were only 4 in the middle 30 days, during which the price actually rose 9.16%. There were another 4 in the most recent 30 days, and the price fell 22.43%. The most recent big down candle was on November 5, closing at 0.01596, down 8.85% from the previous close of 0.01751. By the November 9 close, the price was 0.01729, up 8.33% from the November 5 close but still 1.26% below the pre-drop close of 0.01751.

For an asset like this, where most big down candles are followed by further declines over the next 5 days and none of the 21 drops has recovered to its pre-drop closing price so far, would you wait for it to recover before taking another look, or put it on your watchlist first?