Those of you still waiting for “year-end liquidity easing,” wake up. On CME FedWatch, the probability of the FOMC holding rates steady on December 9 is already 0%.
A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.
All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?
BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.
#BTC #FOMC
A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.
All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?
BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.
#BTC #FOMC
