Over these 90 days, 24 MUBARAK candles stayed within the previous day’s high-low range; the next-day close broke above the prior high only once, but broke below the prior low 7 times

I pulled up the Binance MUBARAKUSDT daily chart. Based on UTC closes, the most recent 90 completed daily candles run from August 12 to November 9; the November 10 candle is still forming, so it is not included. For the daily gains and losses mentioned below, I’ll use both the open-to-close change for that day and the previous-close-to-current-close change. A candle is said to be inside the previous day’s range if its high did not exceed the previous day’s high and its low did not fall below the previous day’s low. A next-day close breaking above means the close is higher than that candle’s high; breaking below means the close is lower than its low.
Over 90 days, $MUBARAK  rose 117.70%, from an open of 0.01774 on August 12 to a close of 0.03862 on November 9. Over the same period, $BTC  rose 18.50%, and $ETH  rose 13.42%. There were 47 bullish bars and 43 bearish bars during these 90 days, with no bars that opened and closed at the same price. On August 12, the price rose 5.02% from open to close, closing at 0.01863. Measured from that close to the November 9 close, the gain was 107.30%.
The highest price was 0.08755 on September 22, and the lowest was 0.01515 on August 16, a gap of 37 days. The price rose 477.89% from the low to the high; measured from the August 12 open to the high, it rose 393.52%. The November 9 close was 55.89% below the high, requiring a 126.70% rise to get back there; it was 154.92% above the low. September 22 itself had a wide range: open 0.04376, high 0.08755, low 0.04348, close 0.07866. It rose 79.75% from open to close and 79.88% versus the previous close.
In these 90 days, there were 24 inside bars, 23 of which had a lower high and a higher low than the previous day. Only on September 14 did the high match the previous day's high, with both at 0.03081. All 24 were followed by a complete next day. On just 1 occasion, the next day's close broke above the prior high; on 7 occasions, it broke below the prior low; and on 16 occasions, the close remained within the bar's high-low range. Looking at intraday breaches, on 19 occasions the next day's high or low broke through at least one side. Of the 16 occasions when the close remained within the range, 11 had an intraday breach, while only 5 had no breach at all. Of these 24 bars, 9 were bullish and 15 bearish. Their average daily trading volume was about 5.9281 million USDT, compared with about 7.5123 million for the other 66 days, 21.09% lower. They also rarely occurred consecutively: there were 19 runs in total, and the longest was 3 consecutive bars, from September 29 to October 1.
The only instance of a next-day close breaking above the prior high occurred after the September 19 bar. On September 19, the high was 0.03290, the low was 0.03140, and the close was 0.03227. On September 20, the close was 0.03333, 1.31% above the previous day's high; it rose 3.41% from open to close and 3.28% versus the previous close. The following two days saw a steep move: the September 21 close was 0.04373, and on September 22 the price reached the 90-day high of 0.08755, closing at 0.07866. From the September 19 close to the September 22 close, it rose 143.76%; from the September 20 close to the September 22 close, it rose 136.00%. This happened only once, and the gains over the next two days were also far greater than the 1.31% close-break on September 20 itself, so there is no clear indication that a close above the prior high leads to a move like this.
On all 7 occasions when the next day's close broke below the prior low, it was also lower than the previous day's close, with an average decline of 8.18%. The two largest declines were on August 25 and September 24. The prior low on August 25 was 0.02231, and the close was 0.01964, 11.97% lower and down 17.82% versus the previous close. The prior low on September 24 was 0.05027, and the close was 0.04454, 11.40% lower and down 15.74% versus the previous close. September 23 deserves a separate mention: its high and low both remained within September 22's range (high 0.08706, low 0.05027), but it fell 32.82% from open to close, with a range equal to 69.60% of the close. Both the body and the range were substantial. Looking 5 days ahead from the close of the inside bar for these 7 instances, the average return was -7.19%; 2 rose and 5 fell. Looking 5 days ahead from the close of the breakdown day, the average return was 2.14%; 5 rose and 2 fell. The sample is small, so it would be wrong to say that a close below the prior low is followed by further declines.
Dividing the 90 days into three periods: from August 12 to September 10, the price rose 61.33% from open to close; from September 11 to October 10, it rose 158.91%; and from October 11 to November 9, it fell 47.91%. The three periods had 18, 19, and 10 bullish bars, respectively, and 12, 11, and 20 bearish bars. They had 9, 11, and 4 inside bars, respectively. The only close above the prior high occurred in the middle period; closes below the prior low occurred 3, 2, and 2 times across the three periods. Over the most recent 14 days (October 27 to November 9), the price fell 24.75% from open to close; over the most recent 7 days (November 3 to November 9), it fell 8.48%. Average daily trading volume over the 90 days was about 7.0898 million USDT, compared with about 1.5000 million over the most recent 7 days.
The most recent inside bar was on November 5, with a high of 0.04278, a low of 0.03950, and a close of 0.04016. On November 6, the price reached a high of 0.04435, above 0.04278, but closed at 0.04255, 0.54% below that bar's high. This counts among the 16 instances where the close did not break out of the range. By the November 9 close, the price was 0.03862, down 3.83% from the November 5 close; it still had not returned to 0.04278 and remained 9.72% below it. Only 4 full days have elapsed since November 5.
Over the 1 day following these 24 instances, the average return was -1.30%; 10 rose and 14 fell. Among the 23 instances with 5 days of data afterward, the average return was 4.84%; 13 rose and 10 fell. The average return over the following 3 days was 6.89%, though this includes the 143.76% move after September 19. The sample is small to begin with, and there was only 1 close above the prior high. These figures do not show which way the price tends to move the day after an inside bar, much less whether 0.03862 will return to 0.08755. They are simply a measure of the price path over these 90 days, not a prediction of future price movement.
When you see an inside bar like $MUBARAK , would you focus more on the 16 times the next day's close stayed within its range, or first consider the 7 times the close broke below the prior low, with an average decline of 8.18% that wasn't followed by a consistent pattern?