链研社lianyanshe(@lianyanshe)'s insights

Post

I thought this guy had blown up after flipping positions so many times. Turns out he got out before the drop and even made a little profit.

Here’s what the on-chain data shows: From 23:06 to 23:13, he closed his 300 BTC long in batches at $74,440–74,590, slightly above the average entry price of $74,376, making about $32,000 on the trade. Starting at 23:23, he flipped for the third time and began shorting. He was still adding to his shorts as BTC fell below $73,300.

链研社lianyanshe

Tonight, Aguila Trades $BTC just opened a short again, then flipped from short to long within an hour: first closing a 300 BTC short, then immediately reversing to go long, adding up to 325 BTC at the peak. The account is now long BTC.

As of 23:08, it held a 300 BTC long position, with a notional value of approximately $22.39 million, cross margin at 40x, an average entry price of $74,375.8, and a liquidation price of $73,132.7—just about 2.0% below the current price. The funds came from 616,192 $USDC transferred to Hyperliquid $HYPE at 18:33 tonight.

Address: 0x1f250df59a777d61cb8bd043c12970f3afe4f925

A few additional points:

1. Position timeline (Singapore time): Began testing short positions at 18:03, continued adding to the short after 21:31, and increased it to a maximum of 300 BTC at 22:16 (notional value approximately $22 million). Between 22:32 and 22:34, the entire 300 BTC short was closed in 6 trades, for a small profit of approximately $10,000. Began reversing to go long at 22:39: 150 BTC at 22:41, 250 BTC at 22:51, and increased to 325 BTC at 23:01, then slightly reduced to 300 BTC at 23:08.

2. Equity and leverage: Account equity is approximately $720,000, against a notional position of approximately $22.39 million, putting actual leverage at about 31x. There is almost no room for a buffer.

3. Distance to liquidation: The current price is approximately $74,596, and the liquidation price is $73,132.7. A BTC pullback of about 2.0% would trigger liquidation. This is within BTC's normal intraday trading range.

4. Reading the trading activity: As BTC strengthened, the trader closed the short and exited, then did not wait on the sidelines, instead chasing the move long with a larger position. The last three additions at 23:01 were made at $74,700–74,800, above the overall average entry price. The trading style involves quickly switching with short-term direction while consistently maintaining actual leverage above 30x.

5. Data sources: Position, trade, and liquidation price data are from the official Hyperliquid API, checked at 23:08. The approximately $38.78 million in cumulative previous losses is based on TradingBeats statistics and was not independently verified by this account. The position is still changing rapidly; refer to real-time on-chain data.

The above is solely an observation of on-chain data and does not constitute investment advice.

BTC-3.98%