It really sucks that there’s no bull anymore; it gives me this kind of empty, wistful feeling. So uncomfortable 😣
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阿冷HODL
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I took a close look at Ethereum’s daily moving averages, as well as the durations of waves 1 and 2 when the previous bull market began.
This Ethereum decline:
1. Ethereum’s daily moving averages are currently aligned in a bearish formation. In every previous Ethereum bull market, the daily chart’s moving averages never formed a bearish alignment.
2. Ethereum’s wave 1, the initial rally, lasted one month, while wave 2 has already lasted a month and a half. So this may well not be wave 2, but instead a downward wave. In previous Ethereum bull markets, wave 1 lasted roughly two to three times as long as wave 2. In other words, no wave 2 lasted longer than half the time of wave 1. This wave 2 has lasted longer than wave 1, so there may well be no bull market this time.
3. When Ethereum recently reached key levels like 2155 and 2078, it plunged suddenly after moving sideways over the weekend. It didn’t come after a sustained, gradual decline followed by a quick wick down. So there’s something wrong with this decline; at least for now, 2050 won’t be the starting point for the next rally. Why? At such a key level, the move was used to liquidate highly leveraged positions rather than trigger a panic-driven sell-off that scares away all the bulls. That’s missing a necessary condition for a bull market rally.
In summary, I think it’s highly likely that Ethereum won’t have a bull market. Don’t buy the dip expecting a huge rally. As for whether Ethereum will rise over the next few days, it might, but I don’t see it going much higher:
2204, 2330 or so.
I’m now considering what to position for in the next cyclical trade. It could be a short position. For now, everyone should stop expecting a bull market and pay attention.
Stop expecting a bull market.
This Ethereum decline:
1. Ethereum’s daily moving averages are currently aligned in a bearish formation. In every previous Ethereum bull market, the daily chart’s moving averages never formed a bearish alignment.
2. Ethereum’s wave 1, the initial rally, lasted one month, while wave 2 has already lasted a month and a half. So this may well not be wave 2, but instead a downward wave. In previous Ethereum bull markets, wave 1 lasted roughly two to three times as long as wave 2. In other words, no wave 2 lasted longer than half the time of wave 1. This wave 2 has lasted longer than wave 1, so there may well be no bull market this time.
3. When Ethereum recently reached key levels like 2155 and 2078, it plunged suddenly after moving sideways over the weekend. It didn’t come after a sustained, gradual decline followed by a quick wick down. So there’s something wrong with this decline; at least for now, 2050 won’t be the starting point for the next rally. Why? At such a key level, the move was used to liquidate highly leveraged positions rather than trigger a panic-driven sell-off that scares away all the bulls. That’s missing a necessary condition for a bull market rally.
In summary, I think it’s highly likely that Ethereum won’t have a bull market. Don’t buy the dip expecting a huge rally. As for whether Ethereum will rise over the next few days, it might, but I don’t see it going much higher:
2204, 2330 or so.
I’m now considering what to position for in the next cyclical trade. It could be a short position. For now, everyone should stop expecting a bull market and pay attention.
Stop expecting a bull market.