I pulled up the daily chart for Binance’s TSLABUSDT. It’s the tokenized stock corresponding to Tesla on Binance. Using UTC closes, the most recent 90 completed daily candles run from August 12 to November 9; the November 10 candle is still in progress, so it’s not included. For the one-day gains and losses mentioned below, I’ll use both the move from that day’s open to close and the move from the previous close to that day’s close. The previous 20-day high is the highest price among the 20 daily candles that had closed before that day, so the first few days use candles from before this 90-day window.
Over the 90 days, $TSLAB went from an open of 333.13 on August 12 to a close of 379.20 on November 9, a gain of 13.83%. Over the same period, $BTC gained 18.50%, and $ETH gained 13.42%. There were 44 bullish candles and 46 bearish candles during these 90 days, with no candles that opened and closed at the same price. On August 12, the price fell 1.73% from open to close, closing at 327.38; from that close to the November 9 close, it gained 15.83%.
The lowest price was 324.09 on August 12, and the highest was 414.93 on November 2, 82 days apart. The price rose 28.03% from the low to the high; measured from the August 12 opening price to the high, it rose 24.55%. The November 9 closing price was 8.61% below the high, so it would need to rise 9.42% to get back there; it was 17.00% above the low.
Over these 90 days, I also counted how often the daily high crossed above the previous 20-day high and whether the closing price held above it. This happened 15 times, but the close held above the line only 4 times: August 13, August 21, September 3, and October 27. The other 11 times, the high crossed above the line, but the close fell back below it.
On all 4 occasions when the close held above the line, the day's high had already exceeded the previous 20-day high by more than 1%—by 2.35%, 4.04%, 4.07%, and 2.87%, respectively. There were 9 times when the amount by which the high crossed the line was less than 1%, and the close failed to hold above it every time. The amount was at least 1% on 6 occasions, and the close held above the line 4 times. The two failures were August 14 and October 21: on August 14, the high reached 351.35, 2.16% above the previous high of 343.93, but the close was 341.84, still 0.61% below it; on October 21, the high reached 395.11, 1.69% above the previous high of 388.56, but the close was 373.94, or 3.76% below it.
The most recent instance was on November 2, also the day of the highest price in these 90 days. The previous 20-day high was 412.92. The day's opening price was 400.54, and its high reached 414.93, just 0.49% above 412.92. The close was 404.93, 1.93% below 412.92. From open to close, the price still rose 1.10% that day. The following days saw a sharp decline: November 3 closed at 396.29, down 2.13% from the previous close; November 4 continued lower, closing at 382.63, down 3.45% from the previous close. On November 5, the price opened at 382.56, fell to a low of 335.78, and closed at 338.62. It fell 11.49% from open to close and 11.50% from the previous close; its deepest intraday level was 12.24% below the November 4 close. By the November 9 close of 379.20, the price had risen 11.98% from the November 5 close and 12.93% from that day's low, but it had not yet returned to the November 4 close of 382.63, remaining 0.90% below it. It was 8.61% below the November 2 high and 8.17% below the 412.92 level it had failed to hold above that day.
Divide the 90 days into three periods. From August 12 to September 10, the price rose 9.11% from open to close; from September 11 to October 10, it rose 5.16%; and from October 11 to November 9, it fell 0.82%. The three periods had 16, 17, and 11 up days, respectively, and 14, 13, and 19 down days. Over the most recent 14 days (October 27 to November 9), the price fell 3.68% from open to close; over the most recent 7 days (November 3 to November 9), it fell 6.35%. Average daily trading volume over these 90 days was about 3.2567 million USDT, compared with about 4.8549 million over the most recent 7 days.
Returns 1, 3, and 5 days after these 15 instances were mixed. For the 11 times the close failed to hold above the line, the average return was 0.11% after 1 day, -0.77% after 3 days, and -1.26% after 5 days. For the 4 times the close held above the line, the average return was actually -1.90% after 1 day. The sample is small, especially with only 4 instances where the close held above the line, so it does not show that a failure to hold will lead to a decline or that holding above the line will lead to further gains.
These figures only show that, over these 90 days, when $TSLAB encountered the previous 20-day high, closes above it occurred more often on days when the price had already crossed the level by more than 1%; on all 9 occasions when it only briefly poked above the line, the close fell back below it. This cannot tell you that 414.93 was the top, or that the next time the price crosses the line by 1%, the close will definitely hold above it. This is a measurement of the price path over these 90 days, not a prediction of future price movements.
When you see a pattern like $TSLAB , where the price repeatedly reaches the previous high but often closes back below the line, do you pay more attention to whether the close holds above it, or first look at whether the breakout is large enough?