Waller drew a line this morning, and the data landed right on it tonight—the December rate hike has turned from a 25-basis-point move into a choice between 25 and 50.
This morning in London, Fed Governor Waller said that if core CPI came in at 0.3%, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point hike in December; raising rates by just 25 basis points "would put the Fed's credibility at risk." The data came out tonight: core CPI was exactly 0.3%, for the third consecutive month; headline CPI was 0.4%, versus expectations of 0.3%. Before Waller laid down his condition, the market had priced in a 0% chance of 50 bps.
First principles in one sentence: crypto has no cash flows; its only lifeline is the discount rate. 25 bps is bearish; 50 bps is twice as bearish. The probability of a December hike is now heading toward 98.8%. The question is no longer whether rates will rise, but by how much.
Market snapshot (before 23:30, Binance spot prices):
$BTC 74,258, with an intraday low of 73,525—the 200-day moving average at 73,176 hasn't broken intraday, and the price has rebounded more than $700 from the low. But don't rush to declare it held: yesterday's close was already below 75,718, triggering a further bearish signal. Tonight's close will determine the next level.
$SOL 83.79, with an intraday low of 82.61—the 84 level has already broken, strengthening the bearish outlook. If it can't reclaim that level, it will keep grinding lower.
$HYPE 73.39—the thesis that "the unlock was absorbed" was invalidated as soon as 76.6 broke. Now the market is testing support at 72–73.
U.S. stocks were also repricing at the open: Dow -0.47%, S&P 500 -0.58%, Nasdaq -0.70%, and the 10-year yield jumped to 4.988%. After yesterday's 6.85% rebound in chip stocks, NVDA opened down another 4.6% today. The "stocks up, crypto flat" routine lasted three days; today, stocks started giving back gains too.
One more painful detail: long-term holders have been selling at a loss for eight consecutive days. The old hands are cutting losses, while newcomers are still thinking of buying the dip?
My stance hasn't changed: the bearish outlook is strengthening; I won't buy the dip or chase shorts. Here's what would invalidate it: if the daily candle closes back above 75,718 tonight, I'll admit I'm wrong and switch to a wait-and-see stance; if it closes below 73,176, the bearish outlook strengthens further, with the next level at the 70,000 options put wall.
For the December rate hike, 25 or 50—which side are you betting on?
This is not investment advice.
#美联储 #CPI #BTC #Bitcoin
This morning in London, Fed Governor Waller said that if core CPI came in at 0.3%, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point hike in December; raising rates by just 25 basis points "would put the Fed's credibility at risk." The data came out tonight: core CPI was exactly 0.3%, for the third consecutive month; headline CPI was 0.4%, versus expectations of 0.3%. Before Waller laid down his condition, the market had priced in a 0% chance of 50 bps.
First principles in one sentence: crypto has no cash flows; its only lifeline is the discount rate. 25 bps is bearish; 50 bps is twice as bearish. The probability of a December hike is now heading toward 98.8%. The question is no longer whether rates will rise, but by how much.
Market snapshot (before 23:30, Binance spot prices):
$BTC 74,258, with an intraday low of 73,525—the 200-day moving average at 73,176 hasn't broken intraday, and the price has rebounded more than $700 from the low. But don't rush to declare it held: yesterday's close was already below 75,718, triggering a further bearish signal. Tonight's close will determine the next level.
$SOL 83.79, with an intraday low of 82.61—the 84 level has already broken, strengthening the bearish outlook. If it can't reclaim that level, it will keep grinding lower.
$HYPE 73.39—the thesis that "the unlock was absorbed" was invalidated as soon as 76.6 broke. Now the market is testing support at 72–73.
U.S. stocks were also repricing at the open: Dow -0.47%, S&P 500 -0.58%, Nasdaq -0.70%, and the 10-year yield jumped to 4.988%. After yesterday's 6.85% rebound in chip stocks, NVDA opened down another 4.6% today. The "stocks up, crypto flat" routine lasted three days; today, stocks started giving back gains too.
One more painful detail: long-term holders have been selling at a loss for eight consecutive days. The old hands are cutting losses, while newcomers are still thinking of buying the dip?
My stance hasn't changed: the bearish outlook is strengthening; I won't buy the dip or chase shorts. Here's what would invalidate it: if the daily candle closes back above 75,718 tonight, I'll admit I'm wrong and switch to a wait-and-see stance; if it closes below 73,176, the bearish outlook strengthens further, with the next level at the 70,000 options put wall.
For the December rate hike, 25 or 50—which side are you betting on?
This is not investment advice.
#美联储 #CPI #BTC #Bitcoin