Let me correct one thing. Everyone’s saying BTC is under pressure, but from when the data came out until now, BTC has barely moved, still hovering around 74,300. The real hits were gold, down 2%; silver, down 3%; and Nasdaq futures, down 1.2%. The same news hit everything, but the impact was worlds apart.
An hour ago, I said that if the low at 73,525 broke, we’d be looking lower. But it didn’t break—instead, price turned around and rallied to 74,844. The breakdown never happened, and I want to be clear about that.
There is one thing worth singling out, though. There’s a reason so many people suddenly started betting on a 50-basis-point hike tonight. A Fed official had already drawn the line, saying that if core month-over-month inflation was still around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. This time, core month-over-month inflation came in at exactly 0.3%.
The bond market’s reaction was even more direct. The two-year yield jumped 16.54 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose just 9.03. The move at the short end was 1.8 times the move at the long end. The market isn’t pricing in long-term inflation running out of control—it’s pricing in more pain in the near term.
BTC is now at 74,339, with the 50-week moving average at 75,535—less than 1,200 points away. I haven’t changed my outlook; I’m still bearish, but I’m not chasing shorts at this level. If it gets back above 75,535, I’ll change my tune. If it breaks below 73,525, I’ll add to my short and look for lower prices.
Gold plunged from over 4,100 to 4,043 in one night. Anyone holding gold is having a rough night. #CPI高于预期美股与BTC再度承压
An hour ago, I said that if the low at 73,525 broke, we’d be looking lower. But it didn’t break—instead, price turned around and rallied to 74,844. The breakdown never happened, and I want to be clear about that.
There is one thing worth singling out, though. There’s a reason so many people suddenly started betting on a 50-basis-point hike tonight. A Fed official had already drawn the line, saying that if core month-over-month inflation was still around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. This time, core month-over-month inflation came in at exactly 0.3%.
The bond market’s reaction was even more direct. The two-year yield jumped 16.54 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose just 9.03. The move at the short end was 1.8 times the move at the long end. The market isn’t pricing in long-term inflation running out of control—it’s pricing in more pain in the near term.
BTC is now at 74,339, with the 50-week moving average at 75,535—less than 1,200 points away. I haven’t changed my outlook; I’m still bearish, but I’m not chasing shorts at this level. If it gets back above 75,535, I’ll change my tune. If it breaks below 73,525, I’ll add to my short and look for lower prices.
Gold plunged from over 4,100 to 4,043 in one night. Anyone holding gold is having a rough night. #CPI高于预期美股与BTC再度承压
