Could the Fed hike rates by 50 basis points? Bitcoin and gold are in for a rough ride
The hot CPI report just came in, with core CPI rising 0.3% month over month. Waller came right out and said that a one-off 50-basis-point hike in December isn’t off the table. Markets have already priced in a rate hike at nearly 100%.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
A lot of people are still asking: Could this be good news for Bitcoin and gold?
The answer is clear: No—in fact, it’s bearish.
- When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets shoots up, making U.S. Treasuries more attractive
- The dollar could strengthen, putting immediate pressure on gold and Bitcoin, both priced in dollars
- Tighter liquidity lowers risk appetite, and Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, is especially vulnerable
The market has already cast its vote: Waller struck a hawkish tone, and CPI came in hot—Bitcoin and gold both plunged.
During the 2022 rate-hike cycle, Bitcoin got cut in half, then cut in half again. Gold only barely held up. Don’t expect this time to be any different.
In the short term, what really matters is real interest rates and the dollar—not treating rate hikes as a catalyst for a rally.
Do you think rates will go up in December? Will it be 25 or 50 basis points?
$BTC
$XAUT
The hot CPI report just came in, with core CPI rising 0.3% month over month. Waller came right out and said that a one-off 50-basis-point hike in December isn’t off the table. Markets have already priced in a rate hike at nearly 100%.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
A lot of people are still asking: Could this be good news for Bitcoin and gold?
The answer is clear: No—in fact, it’s bearish.
- When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets shoots up, making U.S. Treasuries more attractive
- The dollar could strengthen, putting immediate pressure on gold and Bitcoin, both priced in dollars
- Tighter liquidity lowers risk appetite, and Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, is especially vulnerable
The market has already cast its vote: Waller struck a hawkish tone, and CPI came in hot—Bitcoin and gold both plunged.
During the 2022 rate-hike cycle, Bitcoin got cut in half, then cut in half again. Gold only barely held up. Don’t expect this time to be any different.
In the short term, what really matters is real interest rates and the dollar—not treating rate hikes as a catalyst for a rally.
Do you think rates will go up in December? Will it be 25 or 50 basis points?
$BTC
$XAUT