【U.S. stocks rebounded for a day, but $45 billion in potential selling remains】
Last Friday (November 6, U.S. Eastern Time), the S&P 500 $SPY posted its biggest weekly decline since 2025, but global macro funds had barely reduced their equity exposure. Goldman Sachs’ model indicates that systematic strategies could sell $28 billion in S&P futures over the coming week, bringing the total to $45 billion over a month. Around 60% of global equity markets have now flashed negative trading signals, and CTAs and volatility-control funds may continue to cut their positions mechanically.
The options market is adding fuel to the fire, too. There is negative gamma exposure around 7000–7550 on the S&P 500, and further declines could force market makers to keep selling to hedge. The S&P rebounded 2.35% on November 9 to close at 7549.94, but that put it right at the edge of this negative-gamma zone.
What worries me most is that if U.S. stocks fall below 7350 again, systematic selling and options hedging could reinforce each other. Last week’s plunge may not be over, and this rebound isn’t enough to show that the selling pressure has been exhausted. For $BTC , another round of forced deleveraging in U.S. stocks could further transmit risk aversion to the crypto market.
Last Friday (November 6, U.S. Eastern Time), the S&P 500 $SPY posted its biggest weekly decline since 2025, but global macro funds had barely reduced their equity exposure. Goldman Sachs’ model indicates that systematic strategies could sell $28 billion in S&P futures over the coming week, bringing the total to $45 billion over a month. Around 60% of global equity markets have now flashed negative trading signals, and CTAs and volatility-control funds may continue to cut their positions mechanically.
The options market is adding fuel to the fire, too. There is negative gamma exposure around 7000–7550 on the S&P 500, and further declines could force market makers to keep selling to hedge. The S&P rebounded 2.35% on November 9 to close at 7549.94, but that put it right at the edge of this negative-gamma zone.
What worries me most is that if U.S. stocks fall below 7350 again, systematic selling and options hedging could reinforce each other. Last week’s plunge may not be over, and this rebound isn’t enough to show that the selling pressure has been exhausted. For $BTC , another round of forced deleveraging in U.S. stocks could further transmit risk aversion to the crypto market.