Oil had just plunged 22% when missiles flew in the Strait of Hormuz
Yesterday, markets were calm across the board: after speaking with Qatar’s prime minister, Trump said the war was “nearly over” and the likelihood of a major strike was very low. Brent crude promptly crashed below $93, down 5.85% for the day and 22% from its peak, while the entire energy and chemicals sector slumped. Global risk assets breathed a sigh of relief.
Then the story flipped early this morning: five explosions rang out in the Strait of Hormuz, several nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy fired anti-ship missiles directly at merchant vessels traveling along the southern route.
What happened to the promised peace? The agreement is still on the negotiating table, but the missiles have already reached the deck.
Even more telling is the US military’s response: after intelligence warnings about an Iranian threat, the US urgently dispatched a batch of refueling aircraft from its Mildenhall base in the UK to Germany. They say they don’t want a fight, but the logistics are already moving.
One more thing: Russia, Ukraine, and the US also began a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi today. The whole world is talking about peace, but not a single powder keg has been defused.
My take: the market was too hasty to wipe out 22% of the geopolitical risk premium in a single day. Oil prices are trading on the expectation that “a deal has been reached,” while actual oil tankers are navigating the strait. Until the negotiations are signed, any attack could bring the premium right back. Your position is worth more than your opinion—don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal.
US October CPI is also due tonight, and bets on a December rate hike have already reached 79.5%. Don’t forget to defuse this macro time bomb, either.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
NFA DYOR
#原油 #比特币 #霍尔木兹 #美伊谈判 #Cryptocurrency
Yesterday, markets were calm across the board: after speaking with Qatar’s prime minister, Trump said the war was “nearly over” and the likelihood of a major strike was very low. Brent crude promptly crashed below $93, down 5.85% for the day and 22% from its peak, while the entire energy and chemicals sector slumped. Global risk assets breathed a sigh of relief.
Then the story flipped early this morning: five explosions rang out in the Strait of Hormuz, several nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy fired anti-ship missiles directly at merchant vessels traveling along the southern route.
What happened to the promised peace? The agreement is still on the negotiating table, but the missiles have already reached the deck.
Even more telling is the US military’s response: after intelligence warnings about an Iranian threat, the US urgently dispatched a batch of refueling aircraft from its Mildenhall base in the UK to Germany. They say they don’t want a fight, but the logistics are already moving.
One more thing: Russia, Ukraine, and the US also began a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi today. The whole world is talking about peace, but not a single powder keg has been defused.
My take: the market was too hasty to wipe out 22% of the geopolitical risk premium in a single day. Oil prices are trading on the expectation that “a deal has been reached,” while actual oil tankers are navigating the strait. Until the negotiations are signed, any attack could bring the premium right back. Your position is worth more than your opinion—don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal.
US October CPI is also due tonight, and bets on a December rate hike have already reached 79.5%. Don’t forget to defuse this macro time bomb, either.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
NFA DYOR
#原油 #比特币 #霍尔木兹 #美伊谈判 #Cryptocurrency