【Both CPI readings beat expectations; beyond a December rate hike, markets must also brace for 50 basis points】
October headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%—both 0.1 percentage point above expectations. Core inflation has remained at 0.3% for three consecutive months, while housing, food, and energy prices continue to rise. At least for now, this report has not delivered the cooling inflation the Federal Reserve wants to see.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks fell. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.94%. Markets had already been strongly expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and now the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike is also starting to be priced in.
A 25-basis-point rate hike in December is now essentially the market’s baseline scenario, but it is too soon to say the Fed has made its decision. For $BTC , the pressure comes from rising rate expectations, a stronger dollar, and shrinking risk appetite. It may not be easy to rely on the macro environment to drive a short-term rebound; what to watch for next is whether markets shift from digesting one rate hike to worrying about the extent of further tightening.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
October headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%—both 0.1 percentage point above expectations. Core inflation has remained at 0.3% for three consecutive months, while housing, food, and energy prices continue to rise. At least for now, this report has not delivered the cooling inflation the Federal Reserve wants to see.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks fell. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.94%. Markets had already been strongly expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and now the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike is also starting to be priced in.
A 25-basis-point rate hike in December is now essentially the market’s baseline scenario, but it is too soon to say the Fed has made its decision. For $BTC , the pressure comes from rising rate expectations, a stronger dollar, and shrinking risk appetite. It may not be easy to rely on the macro environment to drive a short-term rebound; what to watch for next is whether markets shift from digesting one rate hike to worrying about the extent of further tightening.
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压